The Quest to Pick the Perfect March Madness Bracket

Let’s be clear: no one in recorded history has ever accomplished a perfect bracket. A few came relatively close but the search for the first one to achieve the holy grail of bracketology continues. Just as physicists have the Higgs boson, we basketball fans have the perfect NCAA Tournament bracket.

That’s why business tycoon Warren Buffet took a time off from sleeping in his mattress made of money and announced that he is willing to give $1 billion to anyone who can accomplish the feat.

As hard as it can be, some have come (sort of) close to bracket sainthood. Problem is, two of them weren’t even paying taxes when they did.

The Closest March Madness Brackets Ever

Alex Herrman (2010)

[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Back in 2010, a teen from Chicago named Alex Herrman entered his own bracket into the ESPN’s Tournament Challenge. Herrman was just one of the 4.78 million hopefuls who joined the challenge and after two upset-riddled rounds, he found himself with the sole unblemished bracket.

Herrman’s bracket busted in the regional semifinals when Butler took down the No. 1 seed Syracuse, but it was nonetheless an incredible run. The chances of perfecting the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament are staggering: 1 in 13,460,000. See Herrman’s priceless bracket here.

Brayden Schager (2013)

Just last year, Dallas 10-year old Brayden Schager participated in the ESPN’s Tournament Challenge and almost finished the tournament as the champion had Michigan toppled Louisville in the national title game. For three days prior to the championship, Schager’s bracket was number one out of 8.15 million entries, having correctly predicted 12 Sweet Sixteen teams, seven of the Elite 8, all of the Final Four and both teams in the championship game.

Three Reasons Picking a Perfect Bracket is Hard

1. Number of Teams

The current NCAA Tournament involves a field of 68 teams. With that many teams, the bracket is like an elaborate labyrinth. One wrong turn – or in this case, one wrong selection – makes you ineligible for Buffet’s $1 billion prize.

2. The Tournament’s Format

Off nights can happen to any player or team. Even the otherworldly 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls lost 10 games in the regular season and three in the playoffs. That’s why the single elimination format of the NCAA Tournament is brutal. There’s simply no room for error. One cold shooting night usually means a bus ride home after the game.

3. The Element of Surprise

Unfamiliarity breeds failure in the NCAA Tournament. Most of the teams that meet during March haven’t actually played each other until the Big Dance. Sure, a team can watch videos to scout their next opponent but any number of different dynamics can emerge or evolve once a fresh match up tips off. It’s one of the reasons why upsets and Cinderella teams litter the history of the tournament.

The Odds

The chances of anyone other than God filling out a perfect March Madness bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 according to DePaul professor Jeff Bergen. Heck, the Sixers have a better chance of winning the NBA title this season.

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