Sleeper Xavier March Madness Predictions and Preview

Playing in the tough Big East has made Xavier a seasoned team already when it comes to waging battles against the some of the NCAA’s best. After all, the Big East is ranked fourth overall in RPI. But the loss of their star Matt Stainbrook to an MCL at the critical stretch of the season has made it rough for the Musketeers down the stretch. Would the return of Stainbrook be enough to get them by a team or two in the Big Dance?
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Xavier Musketeers Preview

Key to Success – Field Goal Shooting Percentage

The Musketeers don’t take a lot of three-point shots, often opting to swing the ball nearer to the basket for higher percentage shots. With that style of play, Xavier enjoys a 47.3% clip from the field, second best in the Big East.

MVP – Matt Stainbrook

Xavier big man Stainbrook was a steady force in the middle for the Musketeers until his injury in the latter part of the college basketball season. He leads the team in rebounding (7.8 RPG) and is third in scoring (10.6 PPG). Between the two, it’s his work on the glass, which is the most vital for Xavier, the third-best rebounding team in the league.

[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Having lost several key games down the stretch without him, Xavier is projected by CBS to be a First Four team that would need to win in to claim an 11-seed. That said, it is likely Stainbrook would be ready for the Madness, and with him this is a different team altogether – one that could get past the play-in and beyond.

Achilles Heel – Turnovers

Taking care of the leather has proven a very difficult task for Xavier. The Musketeers are turning the ball over 12.8 times a game and this conspicuous hole in their game on full display in their 81-72 loss to Marquette February 15. In that game, Xavier poisoned itself with a season-high 19 turnovers, which the Golden Eagles converted for 27 points.

Season Highlight – Xavier Gets Back at Creighton

In the two team’s first meeting mid-January, Creighton ended the Musketeers’ winning streak at eight games. Xavier returned the favor to the Bluejays over a month later, thanks to Justin Martin’s career game of 19 points and 16 rebounds.

Prediction

It’s Stainbrook or bust for the Musketeers. Xavier is a team that could easily get hot and they should reach the Round of 32 without much surprise if their big man is back. In the meantime, they will be in tough in the Big East tournament, which has them face Marquette in the quarter-finals.

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