Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes Predictions, Picks, Odds and NCAA Basketball Betting Preview – February 27, 2016

The marquee matchup between No. 11 Louisville and No. 12 Miami (FL) in Coral Gables on Saturday, Feb. 27 should go a long way in deciding this year’s very tight ACC regular season title race. Both teams are currently deadlocked in second place at 11-4, and if Virginia can beat North Carolina later in the day, the winner of the Cards-Canes clash will own a share of the conference lead.

Get a full breakdown of this Saturday’s all-important ACC showdown with our preview below. And speaking of UNC vs. Virginia, catch our preview of that other huge ACC matchup over here.

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Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes Preview

Where: BankUnited Center, Coral Gables

When: Saturday, February 27, 2:00 PM ET

Line: Louisville Cardinals (+3) at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (-3) – view all NCAA Basketball lines

TV Broadcast: ESPN3

Betting on the Louisville Cardinals (22-6, 11-4 ACC)

The Louisville Cardinals aren’t going to the Big Dance or the ACC tournament due to their self-imposed postseason ban, but they still have a very good shot of coming away with the ACC regular season title. They’re getting closer and closer to that goal after a three-game winning streak has seen them climb up to second in the standings.

The Cardinals took down a shorthanded Duke team at home, 71-64, before defeating a potentially dangerous Pitt team on the road, 67-60, on Wednesday.

But as great as the Cards have been at home, they’ve been pretty vulnerable on the road all season long. Five of their six losses this season have come away from the KFC Yum! Center. Two of those losses came against ranked opponents, and one came against a very talented Duke team that was unranked at the time. Their win over Pitt snapped a horrendous 0-7 ATS streak on the road.

Louisville is No. 7 in the country in scoring defense (60.8 points allowed per game), but they allow almost 70 points on the road, about 14 points more than what they give up at home. And with the Cards’ limitations scoring the ball, they could struggle to keep up with the Canes’ very capable offense.

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Betting on the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (22-5, 11-4 ACC)

A 25-point road loss to North Carolina hardly affected the Hurricanes’ confidence as they came right back and defeated a No. 3-ranked Virginia team, 64-61, at home on Monday. With the star backcourt of Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez struggling – they combined for 18 points on just 6-of-20 shooting – junior Davon Reed stepped up with a career-high 21 points to lead the Canes.

That win was yet another example of how formidable the Canes are when they’re playing in Coral Gables. They’re a perfect 8-0 (6-1-1 ATS) at home during conference play, which includes signature wins against the Hoos and Duke.

Although Miami’s very efficient offense (No. 16 according to KenPom) is pretty consistent wherever they play, their defense jumps up to an entirely different level in their own building. They’re allowing just 63 points and an effective field goal percentage of 44 percent at home, way down compared to the 71 points and 52 percent eFG% they give up on the road.

They held Notre Dame and Duke – No. 1 and No. 2 in offensive efficiency this season – to a combined 10-of-36 (28 percent) from beyond the arc at home. Louisville’s offense is nowhere near as talented as those two teams, so the Canes shouldn’t have too hard a time putting the clamps on the Cards.

Writer’s Prediction

Miami (FL) maintains its perfect home record as it beats Louisville, 69-64.

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