Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals Predictions, Odds, Picks and NFL Week 4 Betting Preview – September 29, 2016

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals Preview

Where: Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, Ohio

When: Thursday, September 29, 8:25 PM ET

Line: Miami Dolphins (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals (-7); total 44.5 – view all NFL lines

TV Broadcast: NFL Network

Writer’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

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Betting on the Miami Dolphins (+7)

The good news for the Dolphins: They got their first win in the Adam Gase era and improved to 1-2 SU (1-2 ATS) on the season. The bad news: They needed overtime to beat a bad Browns team which was starting a rookie quarterback on the road. Miami’s defense couldn’t consistently get stops, and didn’t cover as 9.5-point favorites.

Ryan Tannehill looked shaky despite his big raw numbers (64 percent completion, 319 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs). Meanwhile, the defense which looked so promising in Week 1 against the Seahawks has now given up an average of 446 total yards over the past two weeks to offenses led by inexperienced starters (Jimmy Garoppolo and Cody Kessler).

But at least the Dolphins can take solace in the fact that they get to visit a Bengals team that’s currently facing its own set of problems. The Bengals D made Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian look like peak-era Peyton Manning (312 yards and four touchdowns) at Cincy. Tannehill has a trio of young receivers in Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker who can do similar sorts of damage on a shaky Bengals secondary.

Take this stat with a grain of salt since they meet just once every few years, but keep in mind that the Dolphins are 7-1 (SU and ATS) in eight games all-time at Cincinnati, and are 11-2 (9-2 ATS) overall against the Bengals.

Betting on the Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

The Bengals currently aren’t playing anywhere near the level they were during their 12-4 campaign last season. The tough early-season schedule hasn’t helped, but they played another sloppy game in their 29-17 home loss to the Denver Broncos. Penalties, missed plays, and unusually poor defense all contributed to the loss, which dropped them to 1-2 (0-2-1 ATS) on the season.

The Cincy offense has yet to get firing on all cylinders, although they did face three very good defenses in the Jets, Steelers, and Broncos. The Dolphins D is not nearly as good as those three, and could just be the defense which allows the Cincy running game to have a second good game in a row.

Jeremy Hill led the way with 97 yards on 17 carries with two touchdowns against the Broncos. The Bengals as a team rushed for 143 yards. They now face a Miami run defense that has coughed up at least 160 rushing yards in back-to-back games.

Miami’s secondary is also a major question mark. (See: Terrelle Pryor’s 144 receiving yards.) Bengals star wideout A.J. Green knows a thing or two about exploiting questionable secondaries. He torched the Jets for 180 yards on 12 catches in Week 1.

Meanwhile, the defense should bounce back from an unusually poor effort. The return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict from his three-game suspension should only help solidify a unit which gave up just 17.6 points per game at home in 2015.

Writer’s Prediction

It’s not quite time to worry about the Bengals just yet. If they lose to the Dolphins at home, get the panic button ready. But Cincy (-7) is still the better team than Miami, and should bounce back to get the home win, 28-18.

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