Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers Predictions, Picks, Odds, and NCAA Football Week Five Betting Preview – October 1, 2016

Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers Preview

Where: Memorial Stadium — Bloomington, IN

When: Saturday, October 1, 2016, 12:00 PM ET

Line: Michigan State University (-7) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (+7) – view all NCAA Football odds and lines

TV Broadcast:

Writer’s Pick: Indiana (+7)

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Betting on the Michigan State Spartans (-7)

Quarterback Tyler O’Connor’s task of filling the void left by Connor Cook took a step back last Saturday against Wisconsin. The senior was walled by the Badgers defense, sacking him four times and intercepting three of his passes. MSU was blown out, 30-6.

When QBs are coming off a game where they threw multiple picks, they either get too tentative or too eager to bounce back. It will be interesting to see which of the two emotions will go into O’Connor’s mindset.

If head coach Mark Dantonio lets his starting QB sling it, R.J. Shelton, Monty Madaris, and Donnie Corley will be the likely go-to guys – all three have 10-plus receptions and 100-plus receiving yards for the season.

Should the Spartans elect to run the ball more, the backfield tandem of L.J. Scott and Gerald Holmes will be waiting. The duo are proving to be reliable backs in short-yardage situations, as all four of their combined TDs have come within the 10-yard line.

The Spartans have a good amount of talent on defense: Malik McDowell, Riley Bullough, Raequan Williams, etc. This Saturday, they are sure to be tested by the Hoosier offense that averages 31 points per contest.

Michigan State has won seven straight games against Indiana (6-1 ATS).

Betting on the Indiana Hoosiers (+7)

Last Saturday against Wake Forest, Hoosiers QB Richard Lagow was making it rain… interceptions. The man had no trouble finding the open defender, throwing for five INTs. Despite all of that, though, Indiana’s loss was a close one, 33-28.

Lagow should have no problem getting his rhythm and confidence back. The QB is averaging 334 yards per game because he can throw and he has great receivers throw to. Sensational sophomore Nick Westbrook, currently one of the most prolific wideouts in the country, will look to help in shaking off Lagow’s forgettable performance. In three games this year, the receiver has climbed three Big Ten stat categories, placing second in the conference’s receiving touchdowns (4), receiving yards (332), and yards per reception (22.1).

One problem Indiana should be worried about is their inefficiency on third down, as it currently stands at an atrocious 31 percent (13-of-42).

Going to what the numbers are saying in their previous meetings, it looks like the Hoosiers defense have just been unable to contain the Spartans. Michigan State has won its last seven meetings with Indiana, and in six of those, the Spartans have scored 40 or more points.

If, however, the numbers play out how their season averages say, Indiana could probably win. The Hoosiers are outscoring the Spartans in points (92-70), and outproducing them in passing yards (1002 – 681), rushing yards (586 – 548), and yards per play (6.71 – 5.76)

Writer’s Prediction

Indiana covers (+7). Michigan State (-7) wins, 41-35.

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