How to pick an underdog MLB team to bet on

Don’t be discouraged on betting on underdogs. That sounds a bit inane considering that we’re here to talk about betting on baseball ‘dogs, but really, getting over the instinctive fear of laying money on teams with longer odds is a good start.

A lot of folks, particularly the casual bettors, almost always favor betting on the favorites, which are mainly teams playing at home and those who are popular and more recognizable brand—like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, a St. Louis Cardinals. Knowing which teams attracts most of the public’s attention and of course, money, linesmakers at times give favored teams bloated odds just to balance the action.

This is the sort of odds inefficiency baseball bettors should be exploiting. And in this article, we’re going to look at a few tips and ways to improve one’s bankroll by merely riding on the underdogs.

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Betting on MLB Underdogs

#1 Underdog teams win more games than you actually think they do

In 2016, there were three teams that won at least 50 percent of their games as underdogs: Texas, Houston, and Boston. From afar, that doesn’t seem much about the power of betting because those clubs made the postseason and that they’re mostly just underdogs when they don’t have their aces on the mound while playing in road games. Boston, in particular, was the underdog just 38 times out of the 162 games it played in the regular season. The Red Sox were the dogs at home for just six times!

But it’s the other teams and how they fared as underdogs which would really give you an idea how profitable it is to counter chalks. Since winning 40% of bets is considered a success in betting, it could come as a wasted opportunity to a lot of folks that they weren’t able to exploit the fact that 22 clubs (including the aforementioned teams) last season won at least 40% of their games as underdogs per teamrankings.com.

#2 Go bullish on teams with a solid bullpen

Sportsbooks only displays the names of the starters. But even the most casual baseball fan or bettor know that the starters do not write the the story of each game alone. Other factors such as weather, umpires, and hitters influence the outcome. Wait, we forgot to mention the bullpen.

The value of the relievers are always overlooked, if not underestimated, by lots of folks when it fact some teams get way with poor starting pitching by relying on strong bullpens. Last year, Seattle won 48.5% of its underdog games while having the seventh best relievers ERA in the majors. Baltimore, on the other hand, went 35-43 (44.9%) as an underdog. The Orioles’ bullpen that ranked third overall in ERA definitely had a hand in helping them achieve those victories.

# 3 Know the concept of the breakeven line

Spotting an underdog is one thing. Betting on underdogs and knowing how to manage you bankroll is another. Not all odds are created equal. Wagering 100 times on -150 odds and $100 per bet would end in a $2,000 aggregate loss. But knocking down 60% of those bets on -150 odds would end in a break even scenario. Betting on underdogs requires a smaller winning percentage in order to break even. Let the table below be your guide.

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