Monaco vs. Juventus Predictions, Picks, and Preview – UEFA Champions League Semifinals First Leg – May 3, 2017

Monaco vs. Juventus Preview

Where: Stade Louis II – Monaco

When: Wednesday, May 3, 2017, 2:45 PM ET

Line: Monaco +190 vs. Juventus +131, draw +200; total 2.5 – view all Champions League lines

TV Broadcast: Fox Sports 1

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Betting on Monaco (+190)

Monaco made it to the last four of the Champions League for the fourth time in team history after a comprehensive 6-3 aggregate victory over Borussia Dortmund in the quarterfinals. 18-year-old prodigy Kylian Mbappe continued his incredible run with three goals in those two games. He has now scored in all four of Monaco’s games during the knockout rounds.

Mbappe was also on the scoresheet in Monaco’s 3-1 home win over Toulouse over the weekend. Mbappe has scored in four of his last five games, and nine of his last 11 in all competitions.

That win over Toulouse exemplified Monaco’s excellence at home this season. They have an imperious 15-1-1 home record in Ligue 1 this season, with 57 goals scored and 13 conceded. They have been equally impressive in the Champions League, where they have gone undefeated in seven home games (6-1-0) dating back to the qualifying rounds.

With Mbappe and veteran marksman Radamel Falcao (five Champions League goals) leading the charge, Monaco’s abilities in attack are undeniable. But after putting 12 goals past two less-than-stellar defenses in Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund, the Juventus backline will be a major step up in competition.

Betting on Juventus (+131)

It’s no secret that Juventus’ defense is arguably the best in Europe. But that backline unit outdid itself with a virtuoso performance over two legs against mighty Barcelona. They kept back-to-back clean sheets against Barca’s historically great front three of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, and Neymar, which is unheard of.

Juventus have yet to concede a single goal during the Champions League knockout stage, and have given up just two goals in 10 Champions League games this season. None of those two goals were from open play, though.

Juve will likely be a wary of Monaco’s threat on the counterattack, and should be a bit more cautious of attacking too aggressively. It’ll take an even bigger effort to breach that backline if that is indeed the case.

However, Juventus’ ability to grab a crucial away goal should not be discounted, especially against a Monaco defense that has not kept a clean sheet in its last six Champions League games. Juve have failed to score in just two of their 10 Champions League games, one of which was in the second leg against Barcelona when they had a commanding 3-0 lead to protect.

Juve have not been quite as dominant away from home, though. They have won just two of their last seven games outside of Juventus Stadium.

Writer’s Prediction

Monaco do what Barcelona couldn’t and breach Juventus’ defense. But the Italian champions get a crucial away goal in a 1-1 first-leg draw (+200).

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