New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Prediction, Picks and Preview – June 25, 2015

Two of the best offensive teams in the majors engage in a showdown in Texas later tonight when the New York Yankees (39-33) pay the Houston Astros (42-32) a visit. The Yankees are set to take on Houston’s Dallas Keuchel, who’s been one of the surprise pitchers this year. On the flipside, the Astros get a look at Adam Warren, whose numbers are on a steady rise as of late.

More game previews? Click here for a complete breakdown of St. Louis vs. Miami and here for Pirates vs. Reds.
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New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Preview

Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston

When: Thursday, June 25, 2015, 8:10 PM ET

Line:  New York Yankees (+135) vs. Houston Astros (-150); total: 7.5 – view all MLB lines

Betting on the New York Yankees

[sc:MLB240banner ]Coming off a face-saving 10-2 win over the going-nowhere Phillies at home, New York goes on the road for a four-game set against the Astros. On tap to start for the Yankees in the series opener is Adam Warren (5-4, 3.62 ERA), who was excellent against Detroit last Friday. The Yankees are 3-0 in Warren’s last three starts overall.

Against the Tigers, Warren allowed just two runs on seven hits and struck out seven in eight innings of work to lead the Bronx Bombers to a 7-2 win. Warren’s control was particularly great in that game, as he issued no walks for the first time in five starts. More encouraging was the fact that Warren, who owns a high 4.25 FIP, didn’t surrender a home run for the second game in a row.

His newfound control will be put to a stiff test later tonight against Houston, MLB’s leader in homers with 107. Pitching at Minute Maid Park should bolster Warren’s confidence, as he is 1-1 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.47 WHIP in two career starts there.

Speaking of homers, the Yankees are right behind Houston in that department. The Yankees are second in the majors in homers with 98. They’re also second overall in runs per game with a 4.79 average. New York has put up 7.0 runs over its last four games, but went just 1-3 during that stretch, largely because of the team’s poor pitching.

Still, the likes of Brett Gardner and Carlos Beltran will have to continue putting up a show tonight to ease some pressure off Warren. Gardner has gone bonkers over his last seven games, going .516 (10-for-21) with four homers and nine RBIs. Beltran is .455 (10-for-22) with three taters and seven RBIs in his past six outings.

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Betting on the Houston Astros

With the way Dallas Keuchel (8-3, 2.35 ERA) has been pitching thus far this season, it’s not difficult to imagine him recovering from a bad outing, such as one in the Astros’ 6-3 loss to Seattle on Saturday.

Keuchel simply wasn’t himself in that game, as he allowed five hits, five earned runs, and four walks in six innings of duty. Control is the name of Keuchel’s game so look for him to get it together against New York. Keuchel owns the lowest BABIP (.229) among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched, and allows just 0.59 homers per nine frames pitched. He’ll be a tough opponent even for a prolific offensive team like New York, as Keuchel often induces ground balls (64.1GB %) that results to easy outs.

In addition, Keuchel’s track record at home suggests that the lefty will just be alright tonight. So far this season, Keuchel is 6-0 with a 1.62 ERA and .188 opponent batting average in eight home starts. Dating back to last season, the Astros are 8-2 in Keuchel’s last 10 home starts.

Backing Keuchel is Houston’s offense that will count on the likes of Luis Valbuena and George Springer for some pop. Valbuena is 8-for-22 (.364) with three homers and five RBIs over his last six games, while Springer is 7-for-27 (.259) with a pair of home runs in his past seven games.

Writer’s Prediction

Houston (+135) wins, 5-3.
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