New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Predictions, Odds, Picks and Betting Preview – October 19, 2014

Fresh off their bye week, the New Orleans Saints have a tough matchup on the road when they go against the Detroit Lions for Week 7 of the 2014 NFL season. The Saints are currently second in NFC South and will need to put together a streak to catch up to the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, the Panthers have a game of their own on Sunday, when they take on the Green Bay Packers. You can check out our preview for that game here.

In the meantime, read on as we take a closer look at this pivotal NFC showdown.
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New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Preview

Where: Ford Field, Detroit

When: Sunday, October 19, 1:00 PM ET

Line: New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (-2.5); total 49.5  – view all NFL lines

Betting on the New Orleans Saints

One of the early favorites to win NFC South, the Saints are only 2-3 after five weeks of play. All three of their losses have come on the road.

Drew Brees is passing for 314.6 yards per game and has nine touchdowns so far this season. However, he has also thrown six interceptions in five games. Three of those interceptions came against a lowly Tampa Bay team in a 37-31 overtime win.

[sc:NFL240banner ]Tight end Jimmy Graham, who leads the Saints with three touchdowns, is expected to miss two to three weeks due to a shoulder sprain following their Week 6 bye. Wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston have performed serviceable this season, but can’t replace the enormous red zone target that Brees has in Graham. Cooks has caught 32 passes for 255 yards and a score, while Colston has proven to be a deep threat catching a team-high four passes of more than 20 yards.

The Saints could struggle against Detroit’s defense which ranks second in the league in passing yards allowed per game (197.2). If the Saints can’t move the ball through the air, they’ll have their trusty running game which averages 133 yards per game (eighth in the league).

Leading the Saints on the ground will be lead running back Khiry Robinson. The Saints RB leads the team with 304 yards and two touchdowns on 61 carries. Robinson scored the winning 18-yard touchdown in overtime against Tampa Bay. Still, Robinson may struggle against the Lions, who have been stingy against the run allowing three yards per carry.

The Saints’ defense has been vulnerable to the pass this season. They have allowed 267.6 passing yards per game. The Saints have also allowed 28.2 points per contest (fifth-highest in the NFL). Only cornerback Patrick Robinson has an interception among the Saints. Nevertheless, their secondary may not come under fire with Detroit’s star wide receiver Calvin Johnson nursing an ankle injury.

New Orleans are 5-0 after their bye week since 2009.

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Betting on the Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions were shaping up to be a top-notch passing offense in the early weeks of the season, with quarterback Matthew Stafford and excellent playmaking from wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Stafford currently ranks eighth in passing yards among NFL quarterbacks with 1,592 yards through six weeks. However, an injury to Johnson will almost certainly slow their aerial attack in the coming weeks.

Stafford has failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in his last two games. He threw 19-for-33 for 185 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings on Sunday, his lowest output this season. With Johnson nursing an ankle injury, Stafford has mostly targeted Golden Tate, the only proven contributor in the Lions’ receiving corps.

Tate caught seven passes for 134 yards and a touchdown in a 17-14 loss to the Bills on October 5, but was limited against Minnesota with seven receptions for 44 yards. Tate may even see less passes coming his way as the Lions have a 53-47 pass-run ratio when their star receiver isn’t starting a game. Nevertheless, Stafford may find it difficult to resist testing New Orleans’ pass defense, which allows 276.6 yards per game.

If the Lions do run, it will be through No. 1 running back Reggie Bush, who is set to return against the Saints. If he’s able to shake off the rust from being sidelined, Bush may be able to exploit New Orleans’ run defense which allows 4.2 yards per carry. Bush has averaged 3.6 yards per carry this season.

The Lions wouldn’t have so much success this season if not for their tight defense. They were able to hold Minnesota to a single field goal on Sunday as their pass rush tallied eight sacks against rookie Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Leading Detroit in that regard were Ezekiel Ansah (2.5 sacks) and Ndamukong Suh (two sacks).

However, going against the Saints’ O-line may prove to be a more difficult challenge. Drew Brees has only been sacked five times this season (third-least in the NFL). Meanwhile, the Lions defensive backs of Rashean Mathis, Glover Quin, Darius Slay and linebacker DeAndre Levy should be on the lookout for errant passes from Brees, who threw three interceptions in Week 5. The four each have one interception this season.

The Lions are winless in their four games against a Drew Brees-led New Orleans. The total has gone under in five of the Lions’ six games this season.

Writer’s Prediction

The Saints have had enough time to address their defensive lapses. New Orleans wins and covers (+2.5) on the road.
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