Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview – September 7, 2014

For the longest time, the New England Patriots have reigned supreme in the AFC East. For the first time in years, however, they may have a legitimate rival in their hands. The Miami Dolphins almost made it to the postseason for the first time since 2008 last year but lost their final two games to finish a game behind the Chargers for the final AFC wildcard spot.

Can the Dolphins start the new season off right by beating the five-time defending divisional champion Patriots? Read on for everything you need to know about this key AFC East tilt, and check out our compilation of experts’ picks and predictions for the upcoming NFL season.
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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (1:00 PM ET)

Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida

When: Sunday, September 7, 1:00 PM ET

Line: New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins (+4.5); total: 47.0 – see all NFL lines

Betting on the New England Patriots

[sc:NFL240banner ]Although advancing in age, Tom Brady was still solid last season. He still managed to throw for 4,343 passing yards last season and although some will point out that his numbers in this department have decreased significantly since 2011, he remains a vital cog for the Patriots. Last season, the Patriots were still 10th in the passing yards department with a 255.4 yard-per-game clip.

The Patriots were able to add some key pick-ups in the offseason as well, snagging cornerback Darrelle Revis from the New York Jets. He will help transform a New England pass defense that has been one of the main weaknesses of the Patriots in recent years. Last year, they were 18th in the league in opposing passing yards with a 239.0 yard average.

New England also pulled off a surprising trade just before the start of the season dealing six-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for tight end Tim Wright. Wright will serve as a back-up plan for Gronkowski who is coming off an ACL injury last December.

When on the field last year, Gronkowski was a beast. Gronk caught 39 passes for 592 yards with four touchdowns in just six games played before suffering the injury. The Patriots averaged 32.8 points per game during that stretch and Brady had three of his four highest-rated games of the season during that time.

Wright was a good pick-up for the Pats. Wright finished last season with 54 receptions for 571 yards and five touchdowns. The only tight end in the NFL last season to catch more touchdowns than Wright in the final four weeks of the season was Jimmy Graham.

The Patriots are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Miami.

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Betting on the Miami Dolphins

Although the Dolphins failed to make the playoffs for a fifth-consecutive time last season, there were still plenty of positives takeaways from their performance. One of which was their win against their AFC East rivals New England Patriots in their final meeting.

That win snapped Miami’s seven-game losing streak against New England which dates back to 2010. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady, going 25-of-37 for 312 yards, helping the Dolphins score a 24-20 triumph.

Tannehill improved a lot during his sophomore year, passing for 3,913 yards last season, which was an 18.7 percent increase from his 2012 mark. He also doubled his touchdown tally from 12 in 2012 to 24 last year.

For Tannehill to develop his passing game even further, the Dolphins must provide some assistance for their 26-year-old star. Last season, their offensive line allowed Tannehill to be sacked 58 times while their rushing game was severely lacking, ranking 26th in the league with a 90.0 yard average.

Veteran running back Knowshon Moreno will be one of the key guys tasked to boost the Dolphins’ running attack and so far he has looked good this preseason running for 64 yards on 10 carries in his debut against the Cowboys. His performance helped spark a running game that was averaging just 2.1 yards per carry before his arrival.

Although he’s coming off an arthroscopic knee surgery last June, the fact remains that Moreno is coming off his first 1,00o-yard season last year and is the favorite to gain the starting position for the Dolphins in Week 1 ahead of Lamar Miller.

Also helping Tannehill this year will be new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Lazor was the Eagles quarterback coach last season and helped Nick Foles post record numbers with Philadelphia in 2013. The Dolphins are optimistic Lazor will be able to work wonders with Tannehill as well and help the Dolphins improve on their 8-8 record last season.

The Dolphins have been impressive at home lately as well, going 7-3 ATS in their last ten games at Sun Life Stadium.

Writer’s Prediction

The Dolphins (+4.5) will stun the Patriots on opening day.
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