NFL Week 6 Line Movement

The San Diego Chargers’ 31-0 mauling of the New York Jets had consequences far beyond that game itself; it also likely had a significant influence – positive and negative – on both teams’ lines for Week 6 as well. The games involving the Jets and Chargers are two of the five Week 6 matchups whose lines have moved since the beginning of the week.

As always, it’s important to note that lines move for a variety of reasons, from the amount the public is betting on one side, to player injuries, to storylines that emerge on either side. With that in mind, let’s examine the lines that have moved and consider the possible reasons why they have.

For our complete weekly NFL picks and predictions piece based on the early week lines, go here.
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NFL Line Movement for Week 6

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans (+3) (8:30 PM ET)

Line moved from 2.5 (all line movement accurate as of Thursday morning) – view all NFL lines

[sc:NFL240banner ]Texans running back Arian Foster isn’t a fan of Thursday night games. After all, Foster has already been battling hamstring issues this season, and the significantly shorter rest could be a big hindrance to his performance. The perception that he will be less effective this week may be encouraging bettors to lean on the Colts.

The public probably fancies how Andrew Luck and his high-scoring offense, which is averaging over 31 points per game (most in the NFL), will stack up against the Texans’ run-heavy offense, especially on a short week.

Nevertheless, the Texans defense can hold its own against any team. Houston is currently fourth in scoring defense (17.4 points per game) and held a Cowboys offense that had been scoring over 30 points per game to just 20 points in a three-point overtime loss at Dallas.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins (+3.5) (1:00 PM ET)

Line moved from 3 – view all NFL lines

After a so-so start to the season, bettors seem ready to buy in on Aaron Rodgers on the Green Bay Packers offense, which has looked scary good in the last two weeks, posting 38 and 42 points in blowout wins over the Bears and Vikings. And now, it seems Eddie Lacy and the Packers running game have finally found their footing, racking up 156 yards and two touchdowns on Thursday night.

But their run defense is still very questionable, and has given up over 376 yards in those two games. The Dolphins have the running game to exploit just that, seeing as they’re fifth in the NFL with over 142 rushing yards per game.

Denver Broncos (-10) at New York Jets (+10) (1:00 PM ET)

Line moved from 8.5 – view all NFL lines

As if the public didn’t have enough reasons to back the Broncos, seeing the Jets’ offense sink to a new low – getting shutout at San Diego and produced just 154 yards of total offense – provided perhaps the most convincing reason yet. The public was also likely encouraged by the Broncos’ offense having a breakout game in its 41-20 win over a competent Cardinals defense.

Still, nine points is a big number to cover on the road, and the Broncos will likely be facing a Jets team with a point to prove after last week’s humiliation.

New York Giants (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) (8:30 PM ET)

Line moved from 2.5 – view all NFL lines

Why it moved: Despite the Giant’s three-game winning streak, the public has somewhat surprisingly been more optimistic about the Eagles’ revitalized running game. With guard Lane Johnson back after a four-game suspension, Philly finally broke out with 145 yards on the ground against the Rams last week. This is an offense that is already averaging over 31 points per game, and could get even better.

On the other hand, their defense is still a hot mess, ranking 25th in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. The Giants’ offense is no slouch itself, topping 30-plus points in each of their last three games.

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders (+7.5) (4:00 PM ET)

Line moved from 7 – view all NFL lines

The 4-1 Chargers are the NFL’s “it” team through six weeks, and the public has followed suit. After demolishing the Jets every which way last Sunday, simple logic suggests the Raiders – who are as bad, if not worse than the Jets – would be in for a similar treatment. Oakland has lost both games at home so far this season by 16 and 24 points.

However, they lost those games to the Texans and Dolphins, two very good running attacks. The Raiders have actually been pretty good against the pass, limiting opponents to 207 yards per game.

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