NFL Expert Picks for Week 11 of the 2015-16 NFL Season

If Thursday night’s game between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars is any indication of what’s in store for us for the rest of the games on Week 11’s schedule, then we’re in for quite a treat. The Jags won that game just when Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota had a chance to take the lead with a game-ending touchdown drive before a huge sack by Jacksonville’s D sealed the victory for the boys in Florida.

With yet another nail-biter in the books, let’s check in on how our resident football experts from around the web picked their winning teams against the spread, and get some further insights on this weekend’s slate of gridiron action that’s sure to provide some games that will also go down the wire.

Afterwards, check out who several fantasy gurus across the internet have recommended as solid waiver wire pickups for Week 11, as well as our very own fantasy sleeper picks to round out your weekly football betting and virtual gaming experiences.
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Experts’ Picks for 2015 NFL Week 11

CBS Sports

Game | Jason La Canfora (82-64) | Ryan Wilson (80-66) | Dave Richard (83-63)
DAL at MIA (EVEN) | DAL | MIA | DAL
NYJ at HOU | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ
TB at PHI (-5.5) | TB | TB | PHI
WAS at CAR (-7.5) | CAR | CAR | CAR
IND at ATL ( -5.5) | IND | IND | ATL
STL at BAL (-2.5) | BAL | STL | BAL
DEN at CHI (-1) | DEN | CHI | CHI
OAK at DET (+1.5) | OAK | OAK | DET
KC at SD (+3) | KC | KC | KC
GB at MIN (-3.5) | MIN | MIN | GB
SF at SEA (-12.5) | SF | SF | SF
CIN at ARI (-5) | ARI | ARI | ARI
BUF at NE (-7.5) | BUF | NE | NE

[sc:NFL240banner ]Only three analysts from CBS Sports’ eight-man panel have 80 or more correct predictions against the spread after 10 weeks of NFL action: Jason La Canfora, Ryan Wilson, and Dave Richard. And as we take a look at their picks for this week, it’s becoming more and more evident that the Carolina Panthers and the Arizona Cardinals – both leaders atop their respective divisions – are true postseason contenders.

In spite of Kirk Cousins’ career-defining win this past Sunday, the three experts at CBS (and all the other pundits below as well) have predicted the Redskins to fall against the undefeated Panthers in Carolina by more than a touchdown this weekend.

Cam Newton’s passing numbers aren’t that prolific, but his all-around contribution on offense – especially with his feet – has been integral to the Panthers’ success this season. And with its top 10 defense in tow, Carolina is currently the second-best team in the NFC with a plus-80 point differential, which is right behind the next team we’re about to mention.

After a convincing win in Seattle against the Seahawks in Week 10, there should be no further debate as to why the Arizona Cardinals are the top dogs of the NFC West. As long as Carson Palmer is healthy and taking snaps for Arizona’s offense, this team is definitely a force to be reckoned with.

And while you might argue that there should’ve been at least one backer from the three CBS gurus above in favor of the 8-1 Bengals, Andy Dalton’s record in primetime/night games have been anything but lights out. Look no further than the Cincy’s 10-6 loss at home to the lowly Houston Texans this past Monday night to snap the team’s eight-game unbeaten run as proof.

Bleacher Report

Game | Matt Miller | Mike Freeman | Ty Schalter
DAL at MIA | DAL | DAL | MIA
NYJ at HOU | NYJ | NYJ | NYJ
TB at PHI | PHI | TB | PHI
WAS at CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR
IND at ATL | ATL | ATL | ATL
STL at BAL | STL | BAL | BAL
DEN at CHI | CHI | DEN | DEN
OAK at DET | OAK | OAK | DET
KC at SD | KC | SD | KC
GB at MIN | MIN | GB | MIN
SF at SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA
CIN at ARI | ARI | CIN | ARI
BUF at NE | NE | NE | NE

Meanwhile, over at Bleacher Report, the renowned site’s three lead writers – Matt Miller, Mike Freeman and Ty Schalter – have unanimously sided with the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots to cover the relatively huge spreads against the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills, respectively.

B/R is not fazed by the week’s only double-digit point spread from the SF-SEA game, especially with the Seahawks coming off one of their most gut-wrenching losses in CenturyLink Field in recent memory. Miller, Freeman and Schalter also don’t seem to be sold on the Blaine Gabbert-led 49ers coming off win before last week’s bye, even with offensive weapons Carlos Hyde and Anquan Boldin set to return.

But in the end, it must really be San Fran’s 1-6 record over its last seven games in Seattle that got Bleacher’s pundits thinking twice before giving the Niners any credit whatsoever of at least covering the huge spread for Sunday’s match against their bitter rivals.

The same could be said about the Buffalo Bills, who have had some trickles of success against the New England Patriots, but have ultimately been owned by the NFL’s apex predator for quite some time now (Buffalo is 1-8 against New England since 2012). To boot, the Patriots have a plus-134 in point differential (best in the NFL), which just goes to show that covering a one-possession spread should be no tall order for Tom Brady and his boys.

FiveThirthyEight

Game | FiveThirtyEight
DAL at MIA | MIA
NYJ at HOU | HOU
TB at PHI | PHI
WAS at CAR | CAR
IND at ATL | ATL
STL at BAL | BAL
DEN at CHI | DEN
OAK at DET | DET
KC at SD | KC
GB at MIN | MIN
SF at SEA | SEA
CIN at ARI | ARI
BUF at NE | NE

If you haven’t noticed by now, the New York Jets were also favored to win by all six analysts from CBS and Bleacher Report above. However, FiveThirtyEight’s advanced Elo-based projections have predicted that the Houston Texans will prevail with the ‘W’ against the Jets on Sunday. If we look at the current trends for these two teams, it’s looking more like FiveThirtyEight’s prediction has more weight to it than it does on paper.

The 4-5 Texans seem to have found their next gear at the right moment, winning back-to-back games for the first time this season after the humbling defeat they dealt to the Bengals in Week 10. And in those two wins, Houston’s resurgent D limited each of its opponents to just six points. Meanwhile, the 5-4 Jets have lost three of their last four games, and have seen their once vaunted defense and running game suffer steep declines within that stretch.

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