No. 4 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 5 Arkansas Razorbacks Predictions, Pick and Preview – March Madness Round of 32 – March 21, 2015

North Carolina and Arkansas narrowly avoided major upsets on Thursday, eking out first-round victories over Harvard and Wofford respectively. The Tar Heels and the Razorbacks will look to sustain the momentum of those close wins when they square off this coming Saturday in their much-anticipated round of 32 showdown.

Read on below for a preview of this West Regional matchup and while you’re at it, you can check out our second-round previews of Ohio State vs. Arizona and Xavier vs. Georgia State.
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March Madness No. 4 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 5 Arkansas Razorbacks Preview

Where: Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville

When: Saturday, March 21, 8:40 PM ET

Line: North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (+4.5); total: 157.0 – view all March Madness lines

Betting on the North Carolina Tar Heels

“It’s the luckiest I’ve ever felt after a basketball game in my entire life.”

Those were the words of North Carolina head coach Roy Williams after his side survived a stubborn Harvard squad, 67-65, in an epic first-round showdown Thursday night. The Tar Heels wasted a 16-point second half lead but managed to recover down the stretch to forge a round-of-32 clash with the Arkansas Razorbacks.

[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Justin Jackson was the hero for the Tar Heels, scoring a game-tying jumper in the final minute, before soaring for a fast-break dunk that gave North Carolina the lead for good. Jackson was superb for North Carolina all game long, scoring a team-high 14 points on 5 of 8 shooting from the field. Marcus Paige and Kennedy Meeks contributed on the offensive end as well, scoring 12 and 10 points respectively.

If North Carolina wants to go deep in this tournament, though, they will need to do a much better job of protecting the basketball. The Tar Heels committed 17 turnovers in the game against the Crimson. Harvard scored 29 points off those miscues. That’s the most the Tar Heels have allowed in a single game in the last four seasons.

That turnover disparity was the main reason why North Carolina almost lost this game even though they dominated in almost every other category. The Tar Heels had the edge in field goal shooting (55-38%), three-point shooting (71-38%) and rebounding (35-26).

Taking care of the basketball is paramount especially against their third-round opponent Arkansas. The Razorbacks are second among major conference teams in points off turnovers, averaging 19.2 PPG this season. If the Tar Heels can limit their turnovers against Arkansas, then they stand a good chance of advancing into the Sweet Sixteen.

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Betting on the Arkansas Razorbacks

The Arkansas Razorbacks are thanking their lucky stars they avoided the madness of Thursday night.

Arkansas survived a spirited challenge from No. 12 Wofford, edging past the Terriers, 56-53, in a tense first-round matchup. It was a closely-contested game between the two sides. Neither team went ahead by more than five points. The game also featured 18 lead changes and 10 deadlocks.

The Razorbacks had a poor shooting night, going just 22 of 48 from the field. With its offense struggling, Arkansas relied on its defense to bail them out at the end of the game. With the game tied at 53, the Razorbacks went to work on the defensive end, holding the Terriers scoreless in the final 1:55.

Stopping the Tar Heels will be easier said than done as North Carolina is 17th in the NCAA in scoring this season, averaging 77.9 PPG. But the Razorbacks can at least fight fire with fire. Arkansas is averaging 78 PPG this season, 16th in the nation.

For Arkansas to defeat North Carolina this coming Saturday, it needs to dominate the shaded area once again. Arkansas outscored Wofford, 36-16, in the paint on Thursday. Bobby Portis and Michael Qualls combined for 22 of those 36 points in the paint.

Portis and Qualls have been the stalwarts of the Razorbacks’ offense this season, averaging 17.5 and 15.5 PPG respectively. They proved their worth against Wofford as they were the only Arkansas players to score in double-figures. Qualls had 20 points on 8 of 9 shooting while Portis had a field day underneath the basket, scoring 15 points while grabbing 13 rebounds.

Portis has a battle in his hands, however, when he goes toe-to-toe with the towering frontcourt of North Carolina. Led by Kennedy Meeks (7.7 RPG) and Brice Johnson (7.5 RPG), the Tar Heels are averaging an NCAA-best 41.0 boards per game this season.

Writer’s Prediction

The Tar Heels (-4.5) edge past the Razorbacks, 75-69.
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