Capital One Orange Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Predictions, Picks, Odds and NCAA Football Betting Preview – December 31, 2014

What looked like a spot in the College Football Playoff turned into a ticket for a lesser but still prestigious Orange Bowl for the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who failed to get into the top four following a devastating loss to the Ole Miss Rebels in the Egg Bowl. The Bulldogs can still finish the year, though, on a winning note as they take on the dangerous Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, who nearly sent the Florida State Seminoles out of the CFP picture.

You can find our complete bowl game schedule here and check out our preview of the CFP pairing of Florida State and Oregon here.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Betting Preview

Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens

When: Wednesday, December 31, 2014, 4:00 PM ET

Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs (-7) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7); total: 61.5  — view all NCAA Football line

Betting on the Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State was close to being part of the inaugural College Football Playoff, but the Bulldogs failed to sustain the momentum they got from a nine-game winning streak to open the season. In the end, the Bulldogs would be relegated into being the SEC’s representative to the Orange Bowl after losing to the Ole Miss Rebels, 31-17, in the Egg Bowl.

[sc:NCAA240banner ]Despite the ugly ending of the Bulldogs’ regular season, though, the Bulldogs still have many positives to remember from this season. That includes their becoming No. 1 in the polls after three consecutive wins over ranked teams in LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn, respectively.

Emerging as the team’s star was dual-threat quarterback Dak Prescott, who finished the regular season with 2996 passing yards and and 939 rushing yards. Behind the prolific quarterback, the Bulldogs were able to become the 15th-highest scoring team in the nation, as they averaged 37.2 PPG. The Bulldogs, though, ran into a wall in the form of Ole Miss’ defense, one that is ranked best in the nation in terms of scoring defense, as the Rebels allow just 13.8 PPG.

Against the Rebels, Mississippi State managed 445 yards but just had a hard time extending their drives, only converting eight of their 21 third-down chances. Prescott and company, however, can expect a more lenient Yellow Jackets defense that surrenders 25.1 PPG to opposing teams.

Furthermore, Georgia Tech is near the bottom of the rankings in the FBS in terms of opponents third down conversion percentage.  Georgia Tech is 116th in the nation in that department, allowing opposing teams to convert 46.10% of their third downs.

The under is 3-0 in Mississippi State’s last three games overall.

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Betting on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

By virtue of the ACC champions Florida State Seminoles being included in the College Football Playoff, Georgia Tech will now relish the chance to represent the ACC in the Orange Bowl, as the Yellow Jackets finished the regular season as the conference’s runner-ups following a 37-35 loss at the hands of the ‘Noles in the conference’s championship game. Waiting for the Yellow Jackets in Miami is Mississippi State.

When it comes to offense, Georgia Tech has the firepower to keep in step with the Bulldogs. Like Prescott, the Yellow Jackets also have a dynamic quarterback who can make plays with his legs in Justin Thomas. The sophomore signal-caller finished the regular season with 1,594 passing yards and 17 touchdowns. He also led the team in rushing with 965 yards on the ground with five touchdowns to boot.

The Yellow Jackets, however, favors the running game more as evidenced by their conference-leading 333.62 rushing yards per game. In the ACC title game, Georgia paid little respect to the Seminoles’ defense as the Yellow Jackets gathered 331 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Along with Thomas, running backs Zach Laskey and Synjyn Days belong in the ACC’s list of top 10 rushers. Laskey and Days finished the regular season with 71.64 and 57.92 rushing yards, respectively. Mississippi State has been stingy against the rush this season, limiting their opponents down to just 126.50 rushing yards per game, but Georgia Tech shouldn’t be deterred in pounding the rock to the backfield. After all, the Yellow Jackets saw Ole Miss exploit the Bulldogs defense for 205 rushing yards.

The Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.

Writer’s Prediction

Mississippi State (-7) wins, 45-35.
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