Juventus vs. Porto Predictions, Picks, and Preview – UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Second Leg – March 14, 2017

Juventus vs. Porto Preview

Where: Juventus Stadium – Turin, Italy

When: Tuesday, March 14, 2017, 2:45 PM ET

Line: Juventus -180 vs. Porto +380, draw +285; total 2.5 – view all Champions League lines

Writer’s Pick: Juventus (-180)

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Betting on Juventus (-180)

Juventus weren’t at their best in the first leg against Porto. They didn’t even play top defender Leonardo Bonucci after an altercation with manager Massimilliano Allegri. But they were always in control after Porto went down to 10 men, and eventually struck with two quick away goals to effectively seal the tie.

It was business as usual for Juve in their four Italian Serie A matches since beating Porto in the first leg. The Italian giants won three of those four league games – all coming at home – to keep up their amazing home record. Juve have won a perfect 15 of out 15 home league games this season, with 38 goals scored and just 8 conceded.

Juve haven’t been quite as dominant at home in Europe. They only won one of their three group stage games at home, but they did concede just once in those three games. Juve have the best defensive record in the Champions League this season, giving up just two goals in seven games.

With a two-goal advantage, they don’t really need to win against Porto; they only need a draw or a narrow one-goal defeat to go through. But with their defense is as good as it is, don’t count on Juve getting sloppy and actually losing. They are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 Champions League knockout games, with six wins and four draws.

Betting on Porto (+380)

Porto couldn’t have had a much better preparation for their Herculean task of overturning a two-goal deficit away to Juventus. The Portuguese powerhouse won all three of its league games since that first leg by a combined score of 12-0. They absolutely demolished Nacional de Madeira 7-0 at home, before smashing Arouca 4-0 away.

Tiquinho Soares will be in blinding form as he scored five of those 12 goals in the three games. However, he had scored five in four heading into the first leg, and was subsequently held without even a shot on goal for the entire match after Porto went down to 10 men early.

Porto will be without defender Alex Telles after he was sent off in the first leg, but his absence won’t even matter if they can’t threaten Juve’s goal. They had just 24 percent of possession in the first leg, and three shots on goal. Obviously, some of that had to do with going down to 10 men so early, but they will have precious few opportunities in Italy due to Juve’s home dominance.

Despite Barcelona’s historic comeback, history won’t be on Porto’s side in this instance. In 13 tries, no team has ever come back to go through following a 2-0 first leg loss at home in a Champions League knockout tie.

Writer’s Prediction

Juventus once again makes short work of Porto and scores a dominant 3-0 home win.

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