San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – 2014 NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals, Game 4 – Betting Preview and Prediction

Serge Ibaka and the Thunder are not down and out just yet. After missing the first two games – both of which ended in Spurs routs – with a calf injury, Ibaka made an unexpected return to the starting line-up on Sunday in Game 3 and inspired the Thunder to a 106-97 win.

Suddenly, the predictions of some brave NBA experts who picked the Thunder in six are back to being a distinct possibility thanks to Ibaka’s miraculous recovery. If you think that a 2012-style comeback is in the cards, create a betting account now and get in the action as the Thunder could be very profitable as this series rolls on.
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference Finals, Game 4 Betting Preview

Series Scores & Schedule

Game 1 – May 19, Oklahoma City 105 at San Antonio 122

Game 2 – May 21, Oklahoma City 77 at San Antonio 112

Game 3 – May 25, San Antonio 97 at Oklahoma City 106

Game 4 – May 27, 9:00 PM ET, San Antonio (+2.5) at Oklahoma City (-2.5); total 207.5 – view all NBA lines

Game 5 – May 29, 9:00 PM ET, Oklahoma City at San Antonio

Game 6 (if necessary) – May 31, 8:30 PM ET, San Antonio at Oklahoma City

Game 7 (if necessary) – June 2, 9:00 PM ET, Oklahoma City at San Antonio

Betting on the San Antonio Spurs

It’s hard to pinpoint just how the machine-like Spurs offense shot 39% from the field – by far their worst shooting night of these playoffs – in Game 3. There are a few possible reasons: playing on the road, regression, or Ibaka’s impact on defense.

[sc:NBA240banner ]Prior to Sunday’s game, the Spurs hadn’t had trouble scoring on the road; including their Game 3 loss, they’re still averaging 103 PPG on 47% shooting. But they are having some problems winning on the road in the playoffs. San Antonio is just 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS so far away from home.

A good case could be made for simple regression. Tony Parker (nine points, 4-for-13 FGs) had arguably his worst game in the playoffs thus far, and Danny Green (eight points) came back down to Earth after averaging 18.5 PPG on a ridiculous 73% shooting from three in the first two games of the series. Don’t expect those numbers to be so low in Game 4.

Ibaka’s unexpected return is probably the biggest reason, as the Spurs were probably left a little caught out by that development. Knowing the Spurs though, expect Popovich to make the necessary adjustments in time for Game 4.

Betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder

After getting blown out by 17 and 35 points in San Antonio without Serge Ibaka, the Thunder instantly transformed back into the team that swept the Spurs 4-0 SU/ATS in the regular season upon his surprise return to the line up in Game 3 at home. The Thunder are now 8-0 SU/ATS in their last eight home games vs. the Spurs.

With Ibaka back and playing as if he were fully healthy (15 points, seven rebounds and four blocks), the Thunder are a different team on both ends. His shooting (6-for-7 FGs in Game 3) can help space the floor better, while his defensive presence makes the Thunder so much more formidable inside. OKC held the Spurs just 40 points in the paint on 47% shooting after allowing 60 PPG on over 66% in the first  two games.

Aside from Ibaka’s inclusion, head coach Scott Brooks’ decision to insert Reggie Jackson into the starting lineup for Thabo Sefolosha paid off as Jackson scored 15 points, the most he’s had since the Memphis series.

And with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (25 and 26 points, respectively, with eight FTs each) back to scoring and attacking aggressively, the pitiful Thunder offense that only mustered 77 points in Game 2 suddenly looks fully stocked with weapons once again heading into Game 4.

Writer’s Prediction

Ibaka’s return has shifted the momentum on the Thunder’s side, which they’ll carry over into Game 4. Take OKC straight up at -145 to win what should be a tight, exciting game at home.
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