Sweden vs. Germany – Rio 2016 Olympics Women’s Soccer Gold Medal Match Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview – August 19, 2016

Sweden vs. Germany Women’s Soccer Preview

Where: Maracanã Stadium – Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

When: Friday, August 19, 4:30 PM ET

Line: Sweden +280 vs. Germany -125, tie +240; tie 2.0 – view all women’s Olympic soccer lines

TV Broadcast: NBCSN

Writer’s Pick: Germany

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Betting on Sweden (+280)

Sweden’s gameplan for its two knockout games hasn’t been pretty, but it’s sure been effective – effective enough to knock out the U.S. and Brazil, the two big favorites in the women’s Olympic soccer tournament.

The Swedes have been all too happy to drop any pretense of attack, and have opted to just dare their opponents to come at them. And despite conceding a total of 58 shots – 26 against the US and 32 against Brazil – their gambles have paid off. To their credit as well, they held their nerve to win both penalty shootouts.

After seeing their strategy get them all the way to the final, it’s hard to see Sweden changing course now. Like the U.S. and Brazil, Germany will likely dominate possession in the final, and it’ll be up to the Swedes to remain strong and disciplined at the back for the third consecutive match.

Despite being priced at +280, it’ll be a legitimate shock if the Swedes, who have won just one of their five games in the tournament, manage to win the gold within 90 minutes.

Betting on Germany (-125)

Germany lost for the first time ever against Canada during the group stage, but it got its revenge with a 2-0 win in the semifinals. It was an unusual performance from the Germans in that they were happy to give up possession in order to maintain their lead. Their 42 percent possession was easily their least in the tournament thus far.

The Germans’ M.O. has for the most part been dominating games by controlling the ball, which allows them to create a ton of opportunities on goal. They had averaged well over 20 shots per game before having just nine in the semis.

However, expect the Germans to return to that usual gameplan against the Swedes, who will be all too happy to cede possession. The Germans, though, have not been entirely convincing in front of goal. They’ve scored as many goals in their past four games as they have in their very first game – a 6-1 thrashing of Zimbabwe – despite all the chances they’ve been able to create.

But with the Germans likely to enjoy and overwhelming advantage in terms of chances in the final, the Germans are rightly the clear favorites to win the final in 90 minutes.

Writer’s Prediction

Sweden’s luck runs out as Germany (-125) grabs the gold with a 2-0 win.

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