2016 AAC Basketball Championship Predictions, Picks, Odds and NCAA Betting Preview

There’s a legit argument to be made that the American Athletic Conference tournament might be the most intriguing one in Championship Week. Where else can you find a tourney where the best team in the conference is ineligible; the No. 1 seed is a rank underdog; and one of the top two favorites is sure to be gone after just one game? Only in the AAC.

While trying to wrap your head around all of that madness, check out who will ultimately come out on top with our complete tournament preview below. And for more Championship Week action, check out our previews of the Pac-12 and Big 12 tournaments.

March Madness News & Predictions

2016 March Madness Sleepers Predictions and Picks

2016 March Madness Longshots and Best Long Shots Picks and Predictions

2016 March Madness Preview

2016 NCAA March Madness Expert Picks

2016 American Athletic Conference Tournament Preview

Favorites

Cincinnati Bearcats and Connecticut Huskies

So, this is weird. Cincinnati (+170) and Connecticut (+180) are the two odds-on favorites to win the American after SMU’s postseason ineligibility. But due to the two teams’ underwhelming conference records and the re-seeding that took place because of SMU’s absence, the two will meet immediately in the quarterfinals.

Aside from their similar conference records–Cincy went 12-6 while UConn went 11-7–the two teams are also similarly built: elite defensive teams with so-so offenses. They are both inside the top 10 in the country in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, with the Bearcats way up in No. 5. Meanwhile, neither team has a player who averaged over 13 points per game this season.

Cincinnati actually swept the regular-season series over UConn, but the two games were very closely-contested and decided by only seven total points. Kevin Ollie’s crew will be looking for some revenge over the Bearcats as the Huskies try to make another run at the American tournament title. They’ve reached the tournament final in each of the last two years, but have lost both times.

Sleepers

Houston Cougars

Houston took a major step up in Year 2 under head coach Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars went from 4-14 in 2015 to 12-6 in conference play this season and jumped up to the No. 2 seed due to SMU’s absence.

Offense is the Cougars’ calling card. They were No. 2 in the conference in points per game (74.2) and No. 15 in the entire nation in offensive efficiency. Houston used that terrific offense to go 6-1 in its last seven regular season games. The Cougars’ one loss came against No. 1 seed Temple and their final two wins came against UConn and Cincy. They also beat SMU at home and played them very close on the road.

With all that momentum coupled with an offense that can get hot at any time, Houston’s odds of +600 of winning it all suddenly look pretty appealing, right?

Temple Owls

It’s pretty unusual for a tournament No. 1 seed to have the fifth-worst odds to win, but that’s exactly what Temple’s up against. The Owls, who won the regular-season title with a 14-4 record in conference play, are priced at just +700 to claim the tournament title as well.

Temple seems to have a tough road just to reach the final as it has to face either Cincinnati or Connecticut in the semis. However, that’s until you realize that it swept both Cincy and UConn during the regular season and also beat SMU in their lone meeting. So, sleep on these Owls at your own peril.

Long Shot

Memphis Tigers

Unless the Memphis Tigers win the whole tournament, which they’re priced at +1,200 to do, they likely won’t make the NCAA Tournament this year. But don’t let those long odds fool you. The Tigers all have the talent they need to make a shock run.

Their one-two punch of Dedric Lawson and Shaq Goodwin is arguably the best in the entire tourney. The two combined to average 30 points and 17 rebounds per game during the regular season.

They combined for 55 points and 23 board in a big 92-82 win late in the season over Tulsa, who just so happens to be the Tigers’ quarterfinal matchup. If they can successfully weather the Golden Hurricane again, all bets are off.

Writer’s Prediction

Houston gets hot at just the right time as the Cougars claim the American tournament crown.

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