UFC Fight Night 71: Mir vs. Duffee Predictions and Preview

July is absolutely loaded with high-level MMA action. The UFC heads to San Diego for Ultimate Fight Night 71 headlined by a heavyweight showcase between former champion Frank Mir and powerful up-and-comer Todd Duffee. Another veteran in lightweight Josh Thomson faces young gun Tony Ferguson in the co-main event of the evening.

Will there be a passing of the guard come Wednesday night? Read on for a complete look at the explosive fights to come. Before the Mir and Duffee square off in the Octagon, check out the fireworks in UFC 189 headlined by the interim featherweight title fight between “The Notorious” Conor McGregor and Chad “Money” Mendes.
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Ultimate Fight Night 71: Mir vs. Duffee Preview

Heavyweight: Frank Mir vs. Todd Duffee

One of the most promising prospects in the heavyweight division, Todd Duffee (9-2) is back in the Octagon. He’ll be on the heels of back-to-back devastating knockout victories over Anthony Hamilton and Philip De Fries. Duffee is your typical knockout artist with all his nine professional victories coming by way of knockout or technical knockout.

[sc:UFC240banner ]But Duffee is also quite chinny with two knockout losses, including a come-from-behind loss to the pillow-fisted Mike Russow earlier in 2010. He also doesn’t have a good enough gas tank to get him through wars of attrition. If he doesn’t knock you out in the first round, then you stand a good chance of keeping your senses for the rest of the bout.

The 29-year-old American Top Team product will face his toughest test to date in former heavyweight champion Frank Mir (17-9). Take Mir’s recent four-fight losing skid with a grain of salt. All those losses were against elite competition in Alistair Overeem, Josh Barnett, light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier and former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos.

After those losses, Mir took some time off to heal up from injuries and reinvigorate himself. He also happened to sharpen up his boxing along the way. A natural southpaw, Mir can now fight off the orthodox stance. That’s pretty significant considering he now leads with his power side.

Mir showcased his slick boxing in his return fight against Antonio Silva. He repeatedly teased with a double jab before stepping into a jab-lead hook combination which knocked Silva on his backside. He won the fight by first round knockout.

While Mir can knock Duffee out with a well-placed punch, his bread-and-butter is still his submission game. The former champion is considered one of the best heavyweight submission artists, owning the most submission attempts in the division (21). A Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, Mir has submitted the likes of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Brock Lesnar, Tim Sylvia and Cheick Kongo, all heavyweight studs in the UFC.

Writer’s prediction: Mir knocks down Duffee before sinking in a tight guillotine choke for the tapout in the first round.

Lightweight: Josh Thomson vs. Tony Ferguson

Josh “The Punk” Thomson (20-7) has the skills to be the best lightweight in the world. He has a smooth kickboxing game with knockout power to boot; he also has great and opportunistic wrestling to dominate opponents with his grappling. But Thomson has been gun shy in his last two bouts, dropping split decisions to Bobby Green and former champ Benson Henderson.

Standing across the Octagon, Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (18-3) doesn’t lack in killer instinct when the cage door closes. Ferguson lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute. El Cucuy doesn’t just hurt his opponents on the feet; he also finishes dazed opponents with a slick submission game. Utilizing his long limbs, Ferguson has finished three of his last five wins by choke submissions.

Writer’s prediction: Ferguson will be the busier fighter in the Octagon, which should be enough to earn a unanimous decision.

Women’s Bantamweight: Holly Holm vs. Marion Reneau

“The Preacher’s Daughter” Holly Holm (8-0) had an underwhelming UFC debut, needing a split decision to beat Raquel Pennington (5-5) in February. A multiple time professional boxing champion, Holm landed just 21 percent of her significant strikes against Pennington while absorbing 2.7 per minute. She’ll llikely have her hands full against “The Belizean Bruiser” Marion Reneau (6-1)

Reneau brings a well-rounded skillset into the Octagon. She’s a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu brown belt, most recently submitting highly-regarded contender Jessica Andrade in the first round in February. She has also shown good kickboxing, flustering her opponents with 5.38 significant strikes per minute. Her straight right is devastating and could repeatedly find its mark against Holm’s southpaw stance.

Writer’s prediction: Reneau upsets Holm with a closely-contested unanimous decision victory.

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Bantamweight: Scott Jorgensen vs. Manvel Gamburyan

Former bantamweight title challenger Scott Jorgensen (15-10) didn’t have the best of runs down a weight class. He lost three of four fights in the flyweight division before deciding to move back up in weight. He now faces a tough challenge in featherweight-turned-bantamweight Manvel Gamburyan (14-8). The Armenian loves to utilize his strong Judo base to dominate his opponents on the ground. Gamburyan has the second-most takedowns (29) in the UFC Featherweight division.

Writer’s prediction: Gamburyan bullies Jorgensen around toward a unanimous decision win.

Lightweight: Kevin Lee vs. James Moontasri

James “Moonwalker” Moontasri (8-2) cannot catch a break. A striker by trade, Moonwalker is booked to fight a wrestler for the third straight time in his young UFC career. He’s stuffed 15 of 18 takedown attempts in splitting his first two fights against Cody Pfister and Joe Ellenberger, though. He should be just fine should Kevin “The Motown Phenom” Lee (10-1) try to drive him to the ground.

While being a strong wrestler, Lee struggles to finish his takedown attempts; he gets his opponents down on the mat only 38 percent of the time. While he does have good volume with his striking (3.73 significant strikes landed per minute), Lee’s pretty inaccurate, landing just 40 percent of his significant strikes. That should get him in trouble against Moontasri.

Writer’s prediction: Moontasri outpoints Lee standing. Moonwalker wins by unanimous decision.

Welterweight: Alan Jouban vs. Matt Dwyer

Someone’s going to get laid out in this main card opener between Alan “Brahma” Jouban (11-3) and Matt Dwyer (8-2). Jouban has eight knockouts in 11 professional victories, while Dwyer has won all eight of his professional wins by knockout.

Jouban is the more active fighter, landing 5.35 significant strikes per minute. His main weapon is a long straight left hand from the southpaw stance that could stop opponents in their tracks. But his defense suffers greatly, absorbing 3.78 significant strikes per minute. Jouban is giving up four inches in height and 5.5 inches in reach, which should make Dwyer dangerous from long range.

Writer’s prediction: Either fighter could win this fight. It’ll only take one punch or kick to end the other’s night. Take the big underdog in Dwyer for some value on your bet.

Preliminary Quick Picks

Sam Sicilia def. Yaotzin Meza by knockout.

Jessica Andrade def. Sarah Moras by technical knockout

Masanori Kanehara def. Rani Yahya by unanimous decision.

Sean Strickland def. Igor Araujo by unanimous decision.

Ildemar Alcantara def. Kevin Casey by unanimous decision.

Lyman Good def. Andrew Craig by submission.
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