Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview – UFC 249

We’ve already provided a comprehensive betting preview for the main cards on deck for UFC 249 on May 9th from Jacksonville Florida where sports are considered an “essential” service (damn right it is). However, bettors jumping at the opportunity to finally wager on an event on American soil are looking for a little more insight into the main event featuring Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. Both fighters are coming into the bout having won their last three fights, so momentum favors no one. Sure, Vegas odds favor a Ferguson victory but nothing is normal about this upcoming affair so don’t count out an upset in the octagon. Register to make your picks below and read on for a preview of this exciting matchup.

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Betting Preview for the Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje Lightweight Bout at UFC 249 on May 9, 2020

Where: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida

When: Saturday, May 9, 2020

Odds: View all UFC 249 Betting Lines

TV Broadcast: UFC Fight Pass

Betting on Tony Ferguson (-190)

MMA Record: 26-3-0

There are a number of odds available beyond the traditional moneyline for this lightweight bout. For instance, this fight has the second best odds (+200) among the dozen on deck for UFC 249 to end the quickest. Ferguson has an Average Fight Time of 10:04, so the fact that sportsbooks indicate a quick end to the match favors Ferguson’s opponent Justin Gaethje who performs with an Average Fight Time of just 7 minutes and 56 seconds. The odds on this bout going OVER 2.5 rounds is EVEN, while the UNDER is priced at -130. Despite being 5-years older than his opponent Ferguson’s best shot at winning this event is to go the distance and win by decision. With a 6-inch reach advantage over his opponent Ferguson may try to keep his distance to make this happen, but he has a Striking Accuracy of 45% to Gaethje’s 55% so pulling off that feat may be tricky. Yes, Ferguson has a Takedown Accuracy of 42% whereas his opponent doesn’t play that game, but Tony knows getting close to Gaethje can also lead to a KO.

Betting on Justin Gaethje (+155)

MMA Record: 21-2-0

31-year old Juston Gaethje has a number of important advantages over Ferguson. He’s younger, hungrier, and doesn’t care that VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena will be devoid of fans in the stands. He also boasts 8.57 Strikes Landed per Minute to Ferguson’s 5.81 SLpM. Gaethje also has a more impressive Striking Accuracy of 55% to his opponent’s 45%. Why is Gaethje the underdog you ask? He has a terrible Strikes Absorbed per Min (SApM) rating of 9.67, although that has improved slightly from a 10.54 SApM rate at the same time last year. Gaethje and his trainer are well aware of the problem and will look to end the fight as early as possible, as the sportsbook predicts by affording the match +200 odds to end quickly. All this scrapper needs to do is tighten up his defense and he’ll power through to a win against Tony Ferguson.

Writer’s Prediction

Justin Gaethje shocks the odds with an upset win by KO against Tony Ferguson.

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