Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers American League Division Series Game 3 Predictions, Pick, Odds & Betting Preview – October 11, 2015

The Texas Rangers are coming off a thrilling 6-4 14-inning win in Game 2 of the American League Division Series over the Toronto Blue Jays and they are now on the verge of collaring the franchise’s first playoff series win since 2011.

Will the Rangers sweep the Blue Jays tonight? Or will Toronto hang tough and extend the series for at least one more game? Find out more about this matchup below. You can also take a look at our preview for Game 3 of the ALDS between Houston and Kansas City here.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers ALDS Game 3 Preview

Where: Globe Life Park in Arlington, Arlington, Texas

When: Sunday, October 11, 8:10 PM ET

Line: Toronto Blue Jays (-133) at Texas Rangers (+123); total: 9.5 – view all MLB lines

Betting on the Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s 93-win season is on the brink of going for naught as the Blue Jays’ backs are now against the wall, trailing Texas in the ALDS, two games to none. Still, all hope is not lost for the Jays, who will be sending Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) to the mound tonight. Toronto is 5-2 in Estrada’s last seven starts. Estrada had his best season as a professional with a career-high 181 innings. He held opponents to an American League-low .202 batting average and had a top-five ERA this season. Estrada also finished ninth in the majors in hits and walks allowed per inning (1.044).

[sc:MLB240banner ]One major concern about Estrada, though, is his propensity to give up homers. He allowed 24 this season and a league-high 29 in 2014. That being said, the Blue Jays will feel confident with Estrada on the mound as he has fared extremely well of late. He finished the season strongly, going 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA in the second half.

There will be some nerves, however, for Estrada who’s making his first postseason start tonight. He has already appeared in the playoffs before, though, throwing six innings of relief in four games for the Milwaukee Brewers back in the 2011 NLDS. He allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks in that said series.

Certainly, there’s pressure on Estrada’s shoulders and he will have to share it with the Blue Jays’ lineup that has seen its batting stats go down in this series. The Blue Jays, who led the majors in runs scored this season (891), have managed just seven runs in this series thus far. In that extra-inning loss in Game 2, the Blue Jays could only muster two hits from the sixth inning on.

The Blue Jays’ offense could get a break tonight, though, against Rangers starter Martin Perez. Josh Donaldson is a career .385 hitter against Perez on 5-of-13 batting with one homer, two RBIs and three walks. Troy Tulowitzki, meanwhile, is 1-of-3 in his career against Perez with one homer, two RBIs and three walks.

The Blue Jays are 5-2 in Estrada’s last seven road starts.

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Betting on the Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers moved to within a win of their first playoff series victory in four years with a nerve-wracking 6-4 conquest of the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 2 of the ALDS. Hanser Alberto was the hero for the Rangers, lining a tie-breaking single in the 14th inning to give Texas a commanding 2-0 series lead.

They will look to end this division series once and for all when they host the Blue Jays in Game 3 later tonight. Starting for the Rangers in this pivotal contest is Martin Perez. He will be making his 15th start this season and first-career postseason start. In his 14 starts this year, Perez has pitched to a 4.46 ERA and a 3.40 FIP. He stepped up down the stretch for the Rangers, throwing two seven-inning, one-run gems in his last four starts.

One advantage that Perez has in this game is that he hasn’t faced the Blue Jays even once this season. Pitchers always have the edge in such a scenario and the Rangers will be hoping that will be the case in their first home game of the 2015 postseason. One thing that the Rangers will be wary of in this game, though, is Perez’s erratic form against righties. He allowed a .304 average to right-handed batters this season.

He needs to sort that out against a Blue Jays lineup that has crushed lefties this year. That being said, Perez can lean on a Texas offense that has been a step ahead of Toronto in this series thus far. Rougned Odor, in particular, is having a spectacular ALDS, scoring five runs in the opening two games. One guy who’s also expected to contribute tonight is Mitch Moreland. He’s 3-of-5 in his career against Jays starter Marco Estrada with a homer and two RBIs.

The Rangers are 5-0 in their last five Divisional Playoff games.

Writer’s Prediction

Toronto (-133) stays alive with a narrow 5-4 win.
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