UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs. Bader Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview – January 30, 2016

When Rumble gets going, bodies tumble to the ground. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson and his ferocious power are set to meet surging light heavyweight contender Ryan “Darth” Bader in the main event of UFC on Fox 18 at Prudential Center, New Jersey. The stakes are high as the winner would get the next shot at the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship to be contested between title holder Daniel Cormier and former kingpin Jon “Bones” Jones.

If the prospect of a slugfest in the main event already has you going, then the rest of the card is sure to give you a treat. Heavyweight contenders Josh Barnett and Roy Nelson meet in a heavyweight showdown in the co-main event, while surging bantamweight up-and-comer Jimmie Rivera tests his blistering hands on veteran Iuri Alcantara.

It’s going to be a hard-hitting weekend. Check out our complete preview for the blistering Grand Slam tennis action with the Australian Open Women’s Singles Final Serena Williams vs. Angelique Kerber.

Sports News and Predictions

2016 Belmont Stakes Stakes Experts Picks

2016 Belmont Stakes Horse and Jockey Analysis and Breakdown

2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic Predictions, Sleeper Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview

2016 Belmont Stakes Expert Picks and Predictions

UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs. Bader Preview

Light Heavyweight: Anthony Johnson vs. Ryan Bader

Line: Anthony Johnson (-320) vs. Ryan Bader (+240) – view all UFC on Fox 18 lines

Let’s get ready to Rumbleeeeeeeeee. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson (20-5) is back and better than ever in an attempt to claim his second shot at the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. Johnson almost won the title in May 2016, badly battering champion Daniel Cormier in the first round. He had a knockdown with a well-placed over-hand right and proceeded to unleash punches and kicks. But he ran out of steam as he eventually conceded to a third-round rear-naked choke.

$50 Free to bet on UFC! Open an account and deposit $100 to claim.
Johnson has made sure to clean up his mistakes. He now trains with one of the best wrestling and grappling coaches in the business, Neil Melanson, to make sure that he can’t be held down and grinded out. But let’s not mistake ourselves; whenever Rumble enters the Octagon, it’s to knock fools out. His last outing in the UFC had him knocking out talented striker Jimi Manuwa in September 2015.

Rumble definitely has the power and strength. But alas, his weaknesses have stayed the same. He may deny it all he wants, but Johnson has an off switch. If things don’t go his way, he has a habit of fighting badly and conceding defeat. Four of his five losses were by rear-naked choke, after he turtled up due to his opponents’ pressure. Ryan “Darth” Bader (21-4) has just enough grinding ability to grind out and force the fight out of Johnson.

Bader is a former Division 1 All-American in freestyle wrestling. He also has dynamite in his hands as evidenced by his six knockout victories. But Bader has seemingly embraced the grinding lifestyle he has as a collegiate wrestler. His last five fights have ended in decision victories. He has 21 takedowns over those five fights.

Look for Bader to constantly pin Johnson’s back to the cage and work for takedowns, while finding openings for his dirty boxing. Following this game plan should help Bader minimize the risk of being cracked on the noggin’ while also tiring out his opponent. It is in the latter rounds that he may be able to find a fight-ending submission.

Writer’s prediction: Bader (+240) breaks Johnson before sinking in a fight-ending rear-naked choke in the fourth round.

Heavyweight: Josh Barnett vs. Roy Nelson

Line: Josh Barnett (-140) vs. Ben Rothwell (+110) – view all UFC on Fox 18 lines

Josh “The Warmaster” Barnett (34-7) truly exemplifies his nickname. He has a full arsenal of fighting skills that he brings to war. Barnett has a serviceable striking game, utilizing crisp straight punches and elbows. He’s especially crafty in the clinch where he can land knees and elbows. In fact, he has a recent knockout victory over former champion Frank Mir using a crushing knee to the chin.

The Warmaster’s striking is good and all, but he remains a grappler at heart. He has 20 submission victories in his storied career. It’ll be important for Barnett to take the fight to the ground considering he faces a very powerful puncher, Ben Rothwell (35-9). Rothwell has finished his last three fights, including knockout victories over Brandon Vera and top heavyweight Alistair Overeem. He has that one-punch knockout power that could end Barnett’s night early.

Writer’s prediction: Barnett (-140) is too smart and crafty to eat Rothwell’s strikes. Look for Barnett to grind out a decision victory with his wrestling.

Bantamweight: Iuri Alcantara vs. Jimmie Rivera

Line: Iuri Alcantara (+135) vs. Jimmie Rivera (-165) – view all UFC on Fox 18 lines

Jimmie “El Terror” Rivera (18-1) is determined to hold his ground in his home city of New Jersey. He’ll welcome Brazilian opponent Iuri “Marajo” Alcantara (32-6) not with warmth, but with fury. Rivera has plenty of power in his fists as evidenced by his three knockouts in his last four fights. But he may want to use his wrestling chops against a powerful striker like Alcantara.

Alcantara is a finishing machine with 13 knockouts and 12 submissions under his belt. While he has a solid submission game, he’s not that good off his back. He also has a habit of tiring later into rounds. The Brazilian is always a danger to win in the first round. But the deeper the fight goes, the more the odds stack in favor of Rivera.

Writer’s prediction: Rivera (-165) grinds out Alcantara en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Welterweight: Sage Northcutt vs. Bryan Barberena

Line: Sage Northcutt (-360) vs. Bryan Barberena (+280) – view all UFC on Fox 18 lines

“Super” Sage Northcutt (7-0) is a wunderkind of his own. He has a solid blast double leg and very good striking as a former Karate and kickboxing champion before starting his MMA career. But he does have holes in his game. Northcutt was taken down and controlled on the ground by unheralded Cody Pfister in the first round of his last Octagon outing before rallying for the finish in the second.

Northcutt now heads to the welterweight division, where plenty of the best and strongest wrestlers reside. But Ryan “Bam Bam”Barberena (10-3) isn’t one of those big, bad wrestlers. Bam Bam is a striker by trade, which would fall in line to Northcutt’s game. He could still land a fight-altering shot should he get the opportunity present itself.

Writer’s prediction: Northcutt’s power doesn’t translate as well to the welterweight division. But Super Sage (-360) still takes a dominant unanimous decision.

Fox Sports 1 Prelims

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger is basically fighting for his job having lost four of his last five fights. But his tentativeness will be a problem against a solid striker and former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Tarec Saffiedine. Saffiedine (-250) takes a unanimous decision.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-300) is a very solid prospect with a suffocating top-game and excellent Judo. He uses his grappling to grind out Carlos Diego Ferreira, who has been disappointing in the UFC with back-to-back losses.

Kevin Casey doesn’t seem to have the heart to keep fighting. He regularly fades deep into fights and bails at the sign of trouble. Rafael Natal (-160) will surely pour in the hurt once he senses Casey fading. Natal by third round TKO.

It’s going to be quite a flyweight showdown in the prelims when No. 9 Dustin Ortiz takes on No. 12 Wilson Reis. Ortiz is your all-around mixed martial artist with solid volume in his punches, while mixing in takedowns. He’ll likely want to keep this fight standing against Reis, a solid grappler. Ortiz (-225) is the more complete fighter and will win by unanimous decision.

George Sullivan is gritty. He’ll turn any fight into a brawl in order to take out his opponents. Alexander Yakovlev doesn’t really overwhelm his opponents, patiently picking his shots throughout the fight. Count on Sullivan (EVEN) to turn this into an ugly brawl, which favors him to win the decision.

Alex Caceres is very hittable and lacks some pop in his punches. But he’s a solid grappler with good scrambling abilities and even better submissions. Masio Fullen is powerful, but he’s not equipped to escape a scrappy grappler. Caceres (-280) by submission.

UFC Fight Pass Prelims

Levan Makashvili (-300) is a grinder. He won’t give Damon Jackson any space to operate as he cruises to a unanimous decision.

Felipe Olivieri comes from the renowned Nova Uniao camp, which has spawned former champions like Renan Barao and Jose Aldo. He’s a pretty solid underdog pick to beat Tony Martin at +155 early in the prelims.

Randy Brown was personally discovered by UFC President Dana White, while touring the nation. He gets a pretty tough welcome fight in the UFC, taking on a powerful and scrappy fighter Matt Dwyer. Look for Brown (-165) to seize the opportunity with his well-rounded skill set. He’s no slouch either, holding four amateur MMA titles and a pro title in Ring of Combat ahead of his UFC debut.

Create a betting account now and make a splash with a big MMA card on deck.

2,024 total views