UTEP Miners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Predictions, Picks, and NCAA Football Betting Preview – September 5, 2015

The UTEP Miners finished with a winning 7-6 overall record in 2014 and appeared in a bowl game for the first time since 2010. With head coach Sean Kugler finally having some sort of success with the program, the Miners target a better record and another bowl game ticket. A win over Bret Bielema’s No.18 Arkansas Razorbacks will help boost the Miners’ stock for sure. The Razorbacks bring back a talented cast of players on offense, which is expected to overwhelm their Conference USA opponents.

Read on for more about this colossal Week 1 matchup. And while you’re at it, you can check out our preview of No.20 Wisconsin vs. No.3 Alabama here.
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UTEP Miners vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Football Preview

Where: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville

When: Saturday, September 5, 3:30 PM ET

Line: UTEP Miners (+33) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-33) – view all NCAA Football lines

Betting on the UTEP Miners

[sc:NCAA240banner ]Coming off a season in which UTEP made it into a bowl game, the Miners will look to have more success this coming season. A win over a solid SEC program like Arkansas would certainly be a big boost to the Miners’ campaign under third-year coach Sean Kugler.

The Miners are breaking in a new quarterback to replace Jameill Showers, who has already graduated. In lieu of Showers, Kugler will likely name Mack Leftwich as the team’s Week 1 starter (at least) following the news of Garrett Simpson’s injury during an August scrimmage.  Leftwich redshirted the entire 2014 season after a 2013 campaign, in which he played sparingly and compiled 458 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and two interceptions. The strength, however, of UTEP’s offense is on the ground, where they averaged 207.8 yards per game last season—35th best in the FBS.

Junior running back Aaron Jones should dominate the backfield’s possession in Week 1. Jones was fourth in Conference USA in 2014 with 110.08 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns. Even up against the tough defending Razorbacks, Jones is a legitimate threat, considering he racked up 237 rushing yards against New Mexico and had 144 versus Texas Tech in UTEP’s first two games last year.  Furthermore, UTEP returns four offensive linemen to help Jones and Leftwich find rushing and passing opportunities.

UTEP’s defense, meanwhile, is bound to get even better with around five key players returning to beef up the defensive line. Last season, the Miners ranked fourth in the conference in total defense with 368.1 yards surrendered per game.

UTEP is 2-1 ATS in its last three games as underdogs by eight points or more.

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Betting on the Arkansas Razorbacks

For the Razorbacks to make the big leap this season there will have to be marked improvement on their passing offense. A matchup against a stubborn Miners’ defense should be a good test for quarterback Brandon Allen and the rest of Arkansas’ wide receivers.

Allen, who passed for 2,285 yards, 20 touchdowns, and five picks in 2014, will face a UTEP defense that ranked 15th overall in passing defense last year. It’s good news for Allen that Arkansas’ top receiver Keon Hatcher (58 receiving yards and six touchdowns) is back down field, where he’ll look to better his numbers from last season. Allen should also find it convenient to have tight end Hunter Henry, who finished second to Hatcher with 513 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Expect Allen to target Henry more often now that tight end and 300-yard receiver AJ Derby is under the New England Patriots’ payroll. But when Arkansas does decide to run the ball, the Razorbacks will definitely pound the rock on the tandem of Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins—both players rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and had 12 touchdowns apiece. Together, Williams and Collins helped Arkansas average 218.0 rushing yards per game, 26th overall.

Aside from the running game, the Razorbacks also developed an identity on defense after ranking 10th in the nation in scoring defense. Although the Razorbacks saw lots of players on their defense depart, they nonetheless will cover those holes with several up-and-comers like Taiwan Johnson, Bijhon Jackson, and DeMarcus Hodge.

Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as the home team.

Writer’s Prediction

Arkansas (-33) wins, 41-10.
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