MLB National League Wild Card Race Update – August 13, 2015

The National League is a wild world. There you’ll find the New York Mets, leading the National League East. There’s also the Chicago Cubs, who, despite a record that would be tops in most other divisions, are just third in the NL Central. But hope is still alive for the Cubs and current Mets dust-eaters, the Washington Nationals. They’re still in the running to get a spot in the playoffs by nabbing a wild card ticket. The same can be said, too, for the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants.

Read on for a brief breakdown of each of these four teams’ chances to gain entry into the NL postseason as a wild card. You can also click here for the American League’s own wild card race overview.
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2015 NL Wild Card Race Preview

Pittsburgh Pirates (66-46)

World Series Odds: +1,200

[sc:MLB240banner ]The St. Louis Cardinals are used to looking at their rear view mirror and finding the Pirates’ grinning reflection. The Pirates, however, are slowly drifting away in the NL Central race, as they are not having the kind of surge thus far this second half to put a full scare on St. Louis. The Bucs finished the first half just 2.5 games behind of St. Louis but with a 13-11 record since the All-Star break and a strong second half by the Cards, that lead is now up to six games.

Pittsburgh still is the top dog in the NL wild card standings, but if it can’t get it together—especially on the mound—who knows if the Pirates would still be talking October a few weeks from now. The Pirates ranked second in the majors back in the first half with a 2.86 ERA, which is a far cry from their high 4.89 ERA since the midseason break.

The rotation has been besieged with health issues of late with Francisco Liriano needing minor tweaks and A.J. Burnett landing on the disabled list. J.A. Happ was acquired via a trade with Seattle to soften the blow of Burnett’s absence, but Happ giving up four runs in four plus innings in his debut for Pittsburgh early August did nothing to keep the Bucs from worryin.  As of this writing, the Bucs lead the NL for the first wild card berth by 1.5 games.

Chicago Cubs (65-48)

World Series Odds: +1,200

It’s a shame that the Cubs have the fourth-best record in the majors, yet they’re only in the running for a wild card slot. Nevertheless, the Cubbies will take anything just to make Wrigley Field see postseason baseball again.

Increasing the Cubs’ chances of joining the postseason party as a wild card entry is their scorching pace since late July. Dating back to their 9-8 home win versus Colorado on July 27, the Cubs have gone on a 14-2 roll. They supplanted the San Francisco Giants as the No. 2 wild card team along the way, sweeping the defending champions in a recent four-game series.

Per Fangraph’s playoff projection, the Cubs have an 80.7 percent chance of clinching a wild card ticket following their 9-2 win over Milwaukee on Thursday. The Cubs have the advantage of playing sub-.500 teams for their next 10 games. That should help Chicago create more breathing room between it and the Giants, who are behind by 4.5 games for the final wild card spot in the NL. Apparently, that’s going to be easier said than done, as the Cubs are just 37-36 against such clubs thus far this season.

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San Francisco Giants (61-53)

World Series Odds: +1,600

Just because it’s an even year, it doesn’t mean that Bruce Bochy and the rest of the Giants can’t work their magic. That being said, the odds are stacked against them, as they’re 4.5 games back of the Cubs for the second NL wild card slot. Per Fangraphs, the defending World Series champions have a 13.6 % chance (6.9 % as division champions, 6.7 % as wild card) of entering the postseason.

There are two major reasons why the Giants are bumbling right now: injuries and bullpen.San Francisco’s starters are dropping like flies with the likes of Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan, and Joe Panik all hurting. Pagan and Panik are currently on the disabled list with Aoki likely to join them.

It’s going to be tough for the Giants to win lots of games moving forward with those three players out, particularly because they are the team’s top three guys in the batting order. The Giants’ bullpen, meanwhile, has posted a 3.79 ERA this August. That’s not good for the Giants, who are also dealing with injuries to Tim Hudson and trade deadline acquisition Mike Leake. The Giants are in the midst of a 21-game stretch against winning-record teams. Safe to say that their performance during that span will likely decide whether there’ll be postseason baseball in Bay Area.

Washington Nationals (58-56)

World Series Odds: +1,500

Like the Giants, Washington also has a higher chance of finishing atop its division than making it to the postseason via the wild card route. The similarities with San Francisco don’t end there, though. The Nationals are also falling victims to their shoddy bullpen that has posted a league-worst figures of 6.32 ERA and -0.2 WAR this August. That would have been less of a problem for Washington if not for an equally underwhelming offense that is averaging just 3.5 runs this second half.

With a seemingly underperforming pitching and hitting, the Nationals managed to come up with only a 10-17 record in their first 27 games of the second half. Although the Nats have Bryce Harper, owner of the highest individual WAR among hitters in the majors, they will have to ask more from the other stars like Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman. Werth is playing as if he’s begging to be demoted lately, as he’s put up a triple slash line of .151/175/.264 post All-Star break. Zimmerman, at least, is doing much better with .309/.371/.655 during the same time frame.

The Nats lost the first game of a crucial three-game set at AT&T Park on Thursday, thus making them fall to 7.5 games back of the final wild card slot in the NL.
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