{"id":1416,"date":"2013-08-12T19:18:12","date_gmt":"2013-08-12T19:18:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/topbet.eu\/news\/?p=1416"},"modified":"2015-11-17T15:06:08","modified_gmt":"2015-11-17T20:06:08","slug":"how-are-projected-win-totals-set","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/topbet.eu\/news\/how-are-projected-win-totals-set.html","title":{"rendered":"Sports Betting Insight – How Are Projected Win Totals Set?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Isn\u2019t it interesting to know how sports analysts arrive at such figures like the projected win totals? Back in 2008, the Detroit Lions put up a clinic game after game after game on how to lose a football match and they did it to perfection finishing that year\u2019s regular season with a 0-16 SU record. The team left its fans with nothing to expect for the next season and the best they could do is just give a guess on how many wins (if any) Detroit will pick up in 2009; maybe a win, maybe a couple, or maybe three. Who knows? Bookmakers gave the Lions a line of five wins in the 2009 regular season wins odds<\/a>. It went Under as the Lions won just two games.<\/p>\n

In this article, Top Bet provides insight into a few factors that affect how many wins a team can pick up in regular season.<\/p>\n

How Projected Win Totals Are Set in Sports Betting<\/h2>\n

1. Strength of Schedule<\/h3>\n

\"NFL\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Strength of Schedule (SoS) is derived from the previous season\u2019s total winning percentages of all the opponents of a team. From it, we could see which teams are most likely to have a relatively easy or tumultuous season based on the strength of their opponents.<\/p>\n

Here we see how a couple teams fared after a season and compare their records to their SoS. For this one, let’s use the 2012 New England Patriots and Denver Broncos as examples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Team +2012 Reg. Season Win Total Line<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

SoS +Total SU Record of Opp.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

SU Record<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Denver Broncos 9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

.543 (139-117) -2nd<\/sup> highest in NFL<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

13-3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

New England Patriots 12<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

.453 (Easiest in NFL)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12-4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

New England is a good team in a lot of sense but it can\u2019t be ignored that having an easy schedule helped them to total 12 wins (tied for 3rd<\/sup> in NFL). Their schedule that year have them only four opponents that made the playoffs in 2011 \u2013 along with the Atlanta Falcons, it was the least among all the NFL teams that season. The 2012 Broncos on the other hand gave us a reminder that SoS isn\u2019t a tell-all sign of how teams will fare in the standings. They may have had what the SoS deemed as the second hardest that season but they bucked the odds and won 13 games because they acquired a player who goes by the name Peyton Manning. Having said that, let\u2019s look at another factor which is\u2026.<\/p>\n

2. Changes in the Roster, Staff<\/h3>\n

\"NFL-Peyton<\/a><\/p>\n

Have you ever tried using the ESPN NBA Trade Machine<\/a>? In it, you can play your crazy idea of trading away for example LeBron James to the Charlotte Bobcats (regardless of the exchange value) and then the application will tell you how many wins\/losses can that move affect each team involved. It goes without saying that the projections were instant heaven for the Bobcats. As for the Heat, they might just be Miami\u2019s new Marlins. But you get the idea. It\u2019s the same thing in the NFL. When the Broncos won the Manning lottery back in 2012, they turned went from 8-8 SU in 2011 to 13-3 SU the next season. From a betting perspective, Denver had a regular season wins line of 5.5 for 2011 as compared to nine in for 2012.<\/p>\n

3. Point Differential<\/h3>\n

This is a bit tricky but understanding Point Differential will give you a new angle to look from when it comes to assessing teams\u2019 trajectory of performance. Basically, it is the difference between a team\u2019s total points (offense) and the points scored against them (defense). Wait a minute. What does it have to do with projecting win totals? Wins are wins. Losses are losses. These are absolute tenets that should only be entertained when looking at the win-loss columns. That\u2019s because win-loss records doesn\u2019t tell the whole story and some teams\u2019 REAL abilities are belied by their W-L mark. Point differential can tell us better if teams won games pretty decisively or by small margins \u2013 a telling sign that teams could have lost a few games. You can read more about Point Differential here<\/a> and it could enhance your understanding not only of win projections but of football in general.<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Projecting win totals is not exact science even if it involves dalliances with mathematical equations. That\u2019s why there are people who win and lose futures bets and others who get embarrassed by their preseason predictions that eventually become duds. But knowing the factors behind undeniably helps improve your betting game. You can visit TopBet.eu<\/a> and see if there are futures lines in the sportsbook<\/a> for win total odds. Game On!<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

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<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Isn\u2019t it interesting to know how sports analysts arrive at such figures like the projected win totals? Back in 2008, the Detroit Lions put up a clinic game after game<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

<\/path><\/svg><\/i>  2,880 total views,  1 views today<\/p>\n

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