The 92nd Academy Awards “Best Picture” is pretty much a lock, as are many of the other major categories at this year’s Oscars. But there is more speculation surrounding contenders for Best Actor in a Leading Role, with our own editor Ryan Simpson going against the grain to pick Adam Driver (Marriage Story) for the upset over the Vegas’ odds frontrunner Joaquin Phoenix (The Joker). Is a Phoenix win a foregone conclusion, or will the Academy step outside of the comfort zone to award another well-worthy performance? Removing personal bias from the equation, we’re taking a good hard look at proceedings leading up to the big night to make a more educated prediction that you can apply to your own wager for the Best Actor category.
A Golden Globe win for Phoenix’s portrayal of the iconic DC villain and Batman nemesis is not on its own all that relevant as a Best Actor Oscar indicator. The Golden Globes tend to be more openminded and willing to let a comic book character take the cake, while the Oscars weed out “people’s champions” and roll with a more stuffed shirt nominee. However, Phoenix also scored a Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) award for Best Actor. That trifecta justifies his -10,000 odds at the sportsbook.
While Joaquin Phoenix walked away with the flashier accolades, Adam Driver did pretty darn well for himself. Driver cleaned up with key awards that hardcore thespians and industry experts deem to be less tainted by Rotten Tomatoes opinions. His role as Charlie in Marriage Story garnered an Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts (AACTA) International Award for Best Actor. Ironically and quite possibly predictive, he also won the GOTHAM Independent Film Award for Best Actor. The only thing that may ruin his chances as Vegas’ second favorite to Phoenix, is the fact that Marriage Story is/was distributed by Netflix. If Scorsese’s The Irishman’s complete shut out at all major awards this year is any indicator, Hollywood higher-ups are not fans of limited theatrical releases.
Leonardo DiCaprio : Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1,500)
You can never count out Leo when he’s been nominated for a film award, which is why he’s got the third best Vegas’ odd to walk away with a golden statue this Sunday. That said, his portrayal of Rick Dalton, a fictional Hollywood actor staring down the twilight of his never-that-great career, has not won a single award all season. His co-star (but billed as supporting) Brad Pitt won nearly all of his nominations, which further reduces DiCaprio’s odds. Why? Pitt’s impending win allows the Academy to recognize the film from always controversial Tarantino, while avoiding having to give out serious hardware (aka Best Actor award) to a flick that has been criticized as having the least diverse cast in recent memory – a touchy subject for the Academy.
Some ponder how Banderas and Pryce (below) snuck into this category over DeNiro (The Irishman) until they come to terms with the fact that The Irishman included two things the Academy hates – CGI and NetFlix. But we digress. This is no slouch to Banderas’ role as Salvador Mallo. He was indeed amazing and more importantly he won a number of important 2020 Best Actor awards this season, including the following:
Cannes Best Actor Award
European Film Award for Best Actor
New York Film Critics Award for Best Actor
Goya Award for Best Actor
National Society of Film Critics Award for Best Actor
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award for Best Actor
That’s right, Antonio Banderas won more Best Actor awards than any other this year, which makes him a high-value sleeper pick at +4000 to win.
Long shot indeed. While Jonathan Pryce put in a deserving performance and boasts the same Vegas’ odds as Banderas he has won zero awards for the role all season, and The Two Popes is “too Netflix” to give Pryce the upset win over the contenders above.
WRITER’S PREDICTION
WINNER: Joaquin Phoenix
Bettors Tip: Put most of your money on Joaquin Phoenix (-10,000) for the win. However, hedge your bet with a wager on Antonio Banderas as a sleeper at +4,000.
