An explosive blowout gave Tampa Bay the series opener on Monday. A day later, the Astros evened the series with a thrilling 3-2 victory, courtesy of a walk off home run in the bottom of the 10th inning. It gets even better with Houston ace Dallas Keuchel taking the mound for the third contest of this four-game set. Read on for everything you need to know heading into this crucial game.
Line: Tampa Bay Rays (+160) at Houston Astros (-180); total 7.5 – view all MLB lines
Betting on the Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays are in a 1-4 slump. Having Nathan Karns (7-5, 3.53 ERA) taking the ball may not help them chip away their losing rut. Karns is coming off back-to-back rough outings, allowing four earned runs in a 5-4 win over the New York Mets before allowing two earned runs and walking a season-high five batters in 4.2 innings of a 5-3 loss to Texas on Friday.
[sc:MLB240banner ]Karns is making his first career start against the Houston Astros. If the Rays are to take a win, they’ll need to show the same explosive performance they had in the series opener, a 9-2 victory. Tim Beckham hit a three-run home run in the first inning and Asdrubal Cabrera added three RBIs. Cabrera is 3 of 9 with a double, a home run and an RBI in his career against Houston starter Dallas Keuchel.
Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe could have some big games in this game against Keuchel as well. Longoria has hit 4 of 9 with an RBI in his career against the Astros starter, while Forsythe is 4 of 10.
The total has gone over in three of Karns’ last four starts.
Dallas Keuchel (14-6, 2.36 ERA) looks unbeatable at Minute Maid Park. The left-hander is 11-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 13 home starts this season; the Astros won the last six of them. Keuchel has won 12 straight decisions in Houston, but he could be up for a rough outing against the Rays. Keuchel lost his lone career home start against the Rays, surrendering five earned runs in 4.2 innings in July 2013. He’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in four career starts against the Rays with the last three coming on the road.
The Houston ace may not need to be perfect in this game if the rest of the Astros remain hot on the plate. Marwin Gonzalez, who hit the leadoff walk-off homer in the bottom of the 10th of Tuesday’s victory, has gone 6 for 10 in his last four games. Jose Altuve is batting .458 on a five-game hitting streak. Carlos Correa is also hot, hitting safely in his last four games (5 for 14).
Having contributions from the top of the order (Altuve-Gonzalez-Correa) should help the Astros get into an early rhythm to score aplenty against an ailing pitcher like Tampa Bay’s Karns.
The Astros have lost four of their last five games against the Rays.
Writer’s Prediction
Karns rebounds nicely from his rough outings, but Houston (-180) does enough to take the win. Take the total to go under 7.5 for an added bonus.
