It might be a little early to start looking too closely at playoff pictures in most divisions, but for the 5-3 Green Bay Packers and 3-5 Chicago Bears, this game has loomed large on the schedule since the beginning of the season precisely because of its significance to both sides. The Detroit Lions lead the NFC North at 6-2, and with the Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks and 49ers all in the mix for the two NFC wild cards, these two teams have no time to lose in terms of jockeying for position.
Both the Bears and the Packers will be coming out of their bye weeks in Week 10, a reality that will likely have helped the Packers more than the Bears. Read on for more on the second of two meetings this season between the Pack and the Bears, and for more NFL coverage don’t miss our previews of every game on the schedule in our NFL section.
[sc:Football ]Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Preview and Prediction
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay
When: Sunday, November 9, 8:30PM ET
Line: Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers (-7.5); total 48.5 – see all NFL lines
Betting on the Chicago Bears
After back-to-back ugly losses to the Dolphins (27-14) and Patriots (51-23), Marc Trestman, Jay Cutler and the Bears are reeling.
[sc:NFL240banner ]The problems start in the locker room. Multiple reports suggest that team has been struggling with in-fighting, a lack of leadership, and generally tuning their head coach out. Star receiver Brandon Marshall has been heard reaming out his team after the game, and has gone as far as to imply that his quarterback needs to play better.
Marshall isn’t the only that’s upset with Jay Cut. After signing Cutler to a massive extension in the offseason, everyone from pundits to the organization’s GM have suggested that the signal-caller has let his team down in 2014. But the statistics don’t bear that out. Through eight games, Cutler has a 67.2% completion rate, a better than 2:1 touchdown to interception rate, and has thrown 261.6 yards per game – all three would be career-bests if he could maintain them through the entire season.
Cutler has not had much success against the Pack, historically. He has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, throwing 19 interceptions in those games. That said, despite the Packers having gotten better play from their secondary this season (8th-ranked overall with 225.8 yards per game allowed), they have been suspect of late, allowing 311 yards to the Saints in Week 8.
One player who has not struggled against the Packers (or anyone else) is running back Matt Forte. Coming into Week 9, Forte was ranked sixth in the league in rushing yards, and also happened to be second in the league in passes caught (58). Forte torched the Packers for a ridiculous 256 total yards in their Week 4 loss in Chicago, and will be queued up to run through a Green Bay defensive line that has not been able to stop anyone this season.
The Bears are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games against the Packers.
Betting on the Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers suffered a hamstring injury in Green Bay Week 8 tilt with the New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football and New Orleans never looked back, taking over after the injury–which forced Rodgers to shorten his playbook and stay primarily in the shotgun–and winning comfortably, 44-23. The bye week will no doubt have given the Packers franchise quarterback an important opportunity to rehab the issue and he should be at 100% in this one. Rodgers threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns against the Bears in Week 4.
One key to this game will be the play of the Packers’ pass rush. Former Bear Julius Peppers has been having an excellent season for the Packers, recording four sacks and generally providing an excellent complement to Clay Matthews this season. Still, the two elite pass rushers couldn’t get to Cutler in these teams’ first meeting, recording zero sacks between them.
The Packers were without two important members of their secondary against the Saints in Week 8 and it clearly hurt them. Sam Shields and Morgan Burnett both missed the game against New Orleans and first-round draft pick Ha-Ha Clinton Dix was forced into a bigger role for the Packers…a role he did not seem quite ready for.
Shields should be set to go after bye after only narrowly missing the game against the Saints, but the status of Burnett is less certain at the time of writing. Catch the status of both players here. If both Shields and Burnett do not start, the Packers will need a much better performance from the rookie Clinton Dix to avoid Cutler finding his footing at Lambeau Field.
The Packers are 8-2 straight up in their last ten meetings with the Bears.
Writer’s Prediction
Matt Forte explodes to help the Bears keep pace and cover the spread, but Aaron Rodgers does enough late to pull out the win.
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