Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview
Where: Georgia Dome – Atlanta, Georgia
When: Sunday, October 30, 1:00 PM ET
Line: Green Bay Packers (+3) at Atlanta Falcons (-3); total 47.0 – view all NFL lines
TV Broadcast: FOX
Writer’s Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
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Betting on the Green Bay Packers (+3)
Exactly how much stock should we put into the Packers’ 26-10 win over the Bears? Not much. Not only was Aaron Rodgers’ 326-yard, three-touchdown performance against a subpar Chicago defense, but the Bears were also down to their third-string quarterback, Matt Barkley, after Brian Hoyer left the game with a broken left arm.
However, the Packers do seem to match up well in certain areas with the Falcons. With Eddie Lacy out, Rodgers threw the ball 56 times – the second-most attempts in his career – against the Bears. The good news for Green Bay is it can afford to be that pass-heavy against a Falcons defense that is still subpar defending through the air.
Davante Adams got the headlines with his huge night (13 catches, 132 yards, 2 TDs) while Randall Cobb (11, 95 yards, 1 TD) also came up big against Chicago. But it could be Ty Montgomery who comes up big again for the Packers against the Falcons.
The wideout-cum-emergency-running-back has instantly become a Rodgers favorite, and has racked up 20 catches for 164 yards in his last two games. The Falcons have had a wretched time defending running back receivers this season (they’re 28th per DVOA), so Montgomery should help keep the Packers offense moving along.the Packers QB
Meanwhile, outside of the Cowboys game, the Packers have been the best run defense in the league (just 72 rushing yards allowed per game). The absence of the injured Tevin Coleman should only help the Packers corral a dangerous Falcons ground game. The Packers also have a capable pass rush that can help slow Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing attack down.
Betting on the Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Is this déjà vu all over again for the Falcons? Last year, they went 5-0 before finishing 3-8 the rest of the way. And after going 4-1 this season, they’ve now dropped their last two games. To be fair to the Falcons, though, those two losses came against the Seahawks in Seattle, and against a very good 3-4 Chargers team.
Even without Coleman, this is still a very good Falcons offense. The passing game, in particular, is perhaps the best in the league outside of New England. Star wideout Julio Jones has been on an absolute tear, totaling 16 catches for 313 yards in his last two games.
His chances of making it three big games in a row look pretty good as he goes up against a banged up Packers secondary which could still be without three of their top corners (Sam Shields, Damarious Randall, and Quinten Rollins).
The Falcons pass rush remains mediocre, but it has perked up in recent weeks. After demolishing the Denver line to the tune of six sacks on Paxton Lynch, they got four sacks on Philip Rivers. With Rodgers still having problems keeping hold of the football – he already has six fumbles this season, with three lost – the Falcons have a shot at more possessions if they can get to him.
However, it is a bit concerning just how nonexistent the Falcons’ home-field advantage has been in recent games. Atlanta is 3-6 (2-7 ATS) in its last nine home games, and is just 1-6 (0-7 ATS) against teams not named the Carolina Panthers.
Writer’s Prediction
At this point, the Falcons offense has been much more likely to show up than Rodgers and the inconsistent Packers attack. It shows up against a banged up Packers defense, as Atlanta (-3) wins, 34-28.
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