Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, Indiana
When: Sunday, October 30, 1:00 PM ET
Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5); total 49.5 – view all NFL lines
TV Broadcast: CBS
Writer’s Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
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Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
The Chiefs are currently enjoying their very first winning streak of the season. After another Andy Reid post-bye win against Oakland, they won their second game in a row against the New Orleans Saints, 27-21, on Sunday. However, they fell just short of covering the 6.5-point spread. The 4-2 Chiefs are now just 2-4 ATS on the season.
Kansas City was still able to win despite not getting anything from Jamaal Charles. The star running back, who’s still recovering from a torn ACL, had just one carry for no yards. Spencer Ware stepped up in his place with a very Charles-like 131 yards from scrimmage, including 54 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
Ware is currently averaging 5.3 yards per carry, fourth-best in the NFL. Look for him to continue piling up the yardage against a completely inept Colts front which is ranked at the very bottom of the NFL in run defense per DVOA.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are also consistently winning the turnover battle. They’ve had a 2-0 turnover margin in each of their last two wins. With their resurgent pass rush going up against a paper-thin Colts O-line and Andrew Luck’s propensity to make some questionable decisions at times, they should stand a decent chance of gaining a few more extra possessions in Indianapolis.
Betting on the Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
The Colts are coming off their biggest win of the season with a 34-26 road win over the Tennessee Titans. Just like in all three of their victories this season, they needed to come from behind in the fourth quarter to get the win.
Indianapolis (3-4) is now 3-3-1 ATS on the season, and 2-0-1 ATS in its last three games. That really should’ve been 3-0, but the Colts defense collapsed in their 26-23 overtime loss to the Houston Texans on Monday Night.
Andrew Luck was simply brilliant against a much-improved Titans defense as he bailed his defense out once again. He finished 27-of-39 with 353 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
With the defense still not looking like it’s getting any better, the Colts need more Luck magic to finally get their first win streak of the season. Luckily, the Chiefs pass defense is nowhere near airtight. The likes of Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger have burned them in recent weeks, and Drew Brees still lit them up for 367 yards and three touchdowns in a losing effort.
And of course, the last time Luck faced the Chiefs – in the 2013 playoffs – Luck almost singlehandedly staged an epic 45-44 come-from-behind victory where he threw for 443 yards and accounted for five touchdowns (four passing and a fumble return score).
Writer’s Prediction
The Chiefs’ combination of superior running game and superior defense tops Luck’s individual brilliance. Kansas City (-2.5) gets the 27-24 road win.
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