The Chiefs are just 2-2 (1-3 ATS) through four games, but that record is actually a bit worse when you put it into context. They came from behind against the Chargers in Week 1, which, as we know now, is apparently what everyone does against San Diego nowadays. And their win in Week 3 against the Jets was aided by those six Ryan Fitzpatrick picks.
Meanwhile, they’re 0-2 (SU and ATS) in their first two games on the road – a close one-score loss against the Brock Osweiler-led Texans, and a 29-point beatdown against Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers.
On the bright side, though, Jamaal Charles has only had two touches thus far, and should finally be ready to go after getting another week to prepare.
Charles’ return should lessen the load on Alex Smith, who’s been forced to over-extend his game without his star running back. But Smith should also find some success against a Raiders pass defense that has been unable to stop anyone this season. Oakland is dead-last in the NFL in passing defense by some margin, giving up 330 yards per game.
The Chiefs may not seem too trustworthy right now, but the Raiders just can’t cover at home. In fact, Oakland is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games, and 1-7 ATS in its last eight (with spreads ranging from 3 to 4.5). Meanwhile, don’t forget about Andy Reid’s post-bye magic. Reid is 15-2 all-time in games after his team’s week off.
The Raiders are 4-1 (3-2 ATS), but their combination of high-powered offense and porous defense has led to some close, high-scoring games. They had another one of those contests on Sunday, as they came from behind to beat the San Diego Chargers, 34-31. All five of their games have been within seven points or fewer, while the over has also gone 4-1.
The Oakland offense will be the best unit on either team in this matchup against Kansas City. Derek Carr’s very good offense line should give him ample protection against a Chiefs pass rush which just hasn’t been the same without Justin Houston.
Meanwhile, Oakland’s talented receivers can expose an inconsistent Kansas City secondary which Ben Roethlisberger burned for five touchdowns the previous week. After a slow-ish start, Amari Cooper broke out with 138 yards and his first touchdown of the season against the Chargers. Michael Crabtree also caught another touchdown, his fourth in two weeks.
The Raiders defense is an obvious concern, but Khalil Mack has the potential to cause some problems. He’ll be going up against a struggling Chiefs O-line which is currently dealing with a bunch of injuries.
Writer’s Prediction
The Chiefs just don’t have enough weapons to keep up with the Raiders. Oakland (PK) snaps its home hoodoo with a 31-24 win.
