Dodgers vs. Nationals NLDS Game 1 Preview
Where: Nationals Park – Washington, DC
When: Friday, October 7, 2016, 5:30 PM ET
Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-144) at Washington Nationals (+134); total 6.0 – view all MLB lines
TV Broadcast: FOX Sports 1
Writer’s Pick: Washington Nationals (+134)
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Betting on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-144)
The Dodgers took their feet off the gas a fair bit after they clinched the NL West. They went just 1-5 in their last six games, and suffered a three-game sweep against the Giants wherein LA scored just four runs.
Clayton Kershaw will now be tasked with getting his team back on track in Game 1. The ace lefty has started five games since returning from a herniated back in September. While he’s just 1-2 in those starts, he does have a 1.29 ERA with 27 Ks in 28 innings. Prior to his injury, Kershaw was well on-course for another Cy Young, posting a 11-1 record and 1.57 ERA through his first 15 starts.
It remains to be seen how deep Kershaw can actually go in Game 1. Despite reaching the 7th inning in his last two starts, he has not gone over 91 pitches since returning. He has also gone seven innings just twice in his playoff career. Kershaw has a 4.59 ERA in 13 career playoff appearances (10 starts).
However, the Dodgers do have an excellent bullpen, one which led the entire MLB in ERA (3.35) in the regular season, to take over if Kershaw can’t go deep. Lefties Pedro Baez and Grant Dayton were outstanding against left-handed bats this year, a big factor considering the Nats’ top two batters – Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy – are both lefties.
Furthermore, Kershaw has dominated the Nats throughout his career. Kershaw is 10-2 against Washington with a 2.02 ERA, his third-lowest career ERA against any team with over 10 starts. He pitched seven innings of one-run ball in his lone start against the Nats this season, a 4-1 Dodgers win on June 20. The Dodgers won the season series over Washington, 5-1.
Betting on the Washington Nationals (+134)
The Nats have been virtually unbeatable when it’s Max Scherzer’s turn to take the mound. They have won 10 straight Scherzer starts, and are 13-1 in his last 14. Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young, had another stellar season, leading the majors in strikeouts and WHIP while leading the NL in innings pitched. However, he hasn’t been completely unhittable. He had just a 2.98 ERA through his last 14 starts.
Scherzer had a prolific offense behind him for most of the season. The Nats were fourth in the NL in runs during the regular season. However, catcher Wilson Ramos (third on the team with a 3.5 offensive WAR) is gone with a torn ACL, Bryce Harper has struggled over the last month with a thumb injury, and Daniel Murphy (the NL leader in OPS) has only just returned from a buttocks injury.
Scherzer is 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA in his playoff career. His last start didn’t fare so well, as he gave up five runs in 7.1 innings in a loss to the Orioles in the 2014 ALDS. The Nats will need Scherzer to be on point in this game, just like he was in his lone start against the Dodgers this season. He gave up just one run on five hits in seven innings in a 4-1 Washington win on July 29.
If Scherzer can take a lead into the later innings, the Nats bullpen will also be tough to hit. Washington finished second only to the Dodgers in ERA, and has a bunch of lefties to throw at LA in the later innings. The Dodgers were horrendous against left-handed pitchers this season, with a triple-slash line of .213/.290/.332.
Writer’s Prediction
Scherzer outduels Kershaw as the Nats (+134) get the Game 1 win, 4-2.
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