After laying a mighty beating on the great Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots’ next assignment is in Manning’s old stomping ground in Indianapolis to face his old team, the Indianapolis Colts. Andrew Luck has led the Colts to the top of the scoring charts this season, but can his defense contain the Pats’ prolific passing game and a suddenly resurgent Rob Gronkowski?
The Pats and Colts have lived up to expectations this season, but the Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints have been big disappointments. One team’s season is about to get even worse when they face off this Sunday. Check out our preview of that game here, but not before reading up on this big AFC shootout.
[sc:Football ]New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview and Prediction
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
When: Sunday, November 16, 8:30 PM ET
Line: New England Patriots (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5); total: 58.0 – see all NFL lines
Betting on the New England Patriots
The New England Patriots, co-owners of the longest active winning streak in the NFL, have been utterly dominant over the last month or so. Their most recent 43-21 demolition of fellow Super Bowl contenders, the Denver Broncos, was their fifth straight win and the fourth by at least two touchdowns. They’ve gone 4-1 ATS during that stretch, while the total has gone over in their last six games.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Tom Brady and the Pats offense, which is averaging 40 points through the winning streak, had another field day against what had been a very good Broncos defense. Brady finally threw a pick, but he made up for it with four more touchdowns. His touchdown-to-interception ratio in the last five games is still a terrific 18-to-1.
The offense has jumped up to another level in the past few weeks with tight end Rob Gronkowski getting back to his very best. In his last two games, Gronk has 18 catches on 19 targets for 254 yards and four touchdowns. Gronk will be looking to put up even more big numbers as he goes up against a Colts defense ranked 29th in defending against opposing tight ends, according to DVOA.
The Pats defense will have a big test against a Colts offense averaging a league-high 32.2 points per game. But the Pats did manage to corral the Broncos’ explosive offense with the help of turnovers. They picked Peyton Manning off twice, their ninth and 10th interceptions of the season. New England has one of the best and deepest secondaries in all of football this season, and should match up very well against the Colts and their deep stable of receivers.
Bill Belichick has been very successful in two previous matchups against Andrew Luck’s Colts. The Pats have intercepted Luck seven times en route to two 20-plus point wins. Belichick has also been pretty good with an extra week’s preparation. The Pats are 10-4 under Belichick following their bye.
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Betting on the Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts bounced back from their 51-34 pounding at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers to give out a 40-24 demolition of their own against the New York Giants prior to the Colts’ bye.
The Colts defense which had been playing pretty well prior to their game against the Steelers – remember, they shut out the Bengals the week before – redeemed themselves against the Giants. Don’t let the New York’s 24 points and 349 yards fool you; 14 of those points and most of those yards came in the fourth quarter, when the game was all but decided.
The Colts may not be good enough to completely shut out the Pats’ offense, but they’re certainly capable of slowing them down, especially at home. Since giving up 30 points in their home opener against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Colts have given up exactly 30 points in their last three home games.
Meanwhile, the Colts’ offense remains as good as advertised. Quarterback Andrew Luck, the league’s runaway leader in passing yards, threw for 354 yards with four touchdowns against the Giants. The way he spread those passes out among his receivers shows just how many weapons the Colts have on offense.
Six different receivers caught three or four passes, while four different receivers caught touchdowns. The Pats will likely send out shutdown corner Darrelle Revis to shadow T.Y. Hilton, who’s currently second in the league with 937 receiving yards this season, but Luck will still have plenty of options to target. Tight ends Dwyane Allen and Coby Fleener have 11 receiving touchdowns between them and running back Ahmad Bradshaw has six.
The Colts are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games.
Writer’s Prediction
The Patriots have enough firepower to take down the Colts in Indianapolis. Take New England (+2.5) to win and cover on the road.
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