Jo-Wilfried Tsonga’s bid to end France’s 32-year title drought in the French Open remains right on track after eking past Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. The path to the championship will only get tougher, though, for Tsonga as standing in his way in the semifinals is Stan Wawrinka.
The eighth-seeded Wawrinka recorded a stunning upset of his own, beating 17-time Grand Slam winner Roger Federer in straight sets in the last eight. Read on below for a breakdown of this blockbuster matchup and while you’re at it, you can check out our preview of the women’s semifinal between Ana Ivanovic and Lucie Safarova.
[sc:TennisArticles ]Stan Wawrinka vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Betting Preview
Where: Roland Garros, Paris
When: Friday, June 5, 4:00 AM ET
Line: Stan Wawrinka (-240) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+180) – view all French Open lines
Betting on Stan Wawrinka
Now that was a shock.
[sc:Other240banner ]Stan Wawrinka earned his first-ever victory over Roger Federer at a Grand Slam event Tuesday, beating his compatriot 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (4), in a gripping quarterfinal showdown. The 30-year-old needed just two hours and nine minutes to secure the victory as he booked a place in the semifinals of the French Open for the first time in his career.
It was a dominant performance from Wawrinka who entered the match carrying a 2-16 lifetime record against Federer. He drilled 1.54 winners per game against Federer and committed just 28 unforced errors the entire match. Prior to his win on Tuesday, Wawrinka was committing an average of 36.3 errors per match in this tournament.
He will need more of the same when he squares off with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga this coming Friday. He is 3-3 lifetime against the Frenchman with five of their matches coming on clay. Two of those clay matches came in the French Open with each player grabbing a victory. Wawrinka’s win against Tsonga at Roland Garros (2011) was a memorable one as he came back from two sets down to win 4-6, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (5), 6-2, 6-3.
To grab an edge against Tsonga, it’s crucial for Wawrinka to improve on his first serve percentage. In his match against Federer, he put into play just 54% of his first serves. To demonstrate how useful a tool Wawrinka’s first serve is, he won 88% of his first serve points against Federer. If his first serves are right on target this coming Friday, his chances of winning against Tsonga will increase dramatically.
Wawrinka is 8-2 in his last 10 matches.
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Betting on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga regained his composure just in the nick of time, beating fifth seed Kei Nishikori, 6-1, 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, to reach the French Open semifinals on Tuesday. With the whole country rooting for him, Tsonga dug deep to finish the five-set thriller in three hours and 45 minutes.
With Stan Wawrinka waiting for him in the next round, a marathon encounter might be in the cards for Tsonga once again. Both of their meetings at the French Open have gone the full route. Tsonga emerged victorious in their last encounter at Roland Garros in 2012, winning 6-4, 7-6 (6), 3-6, 3-6, 6-4.
Key to Tsonga’s gruelling quarterfinal win was his excellent serve. He converted 61% of his first serves against Nishikori with Tsonga winning 83% (60/72) of his first serve points. He also found some success in his forays to the net, winning 18 of his 28 points there. He also outhit Nishikori in the winners department, 44-37.
Given all that, there’s still plenty of room for improvement for Tsonga heading into his match against Wawrinka. He needs to limit his miscues against the Swiss star if he is to reach his second Grand Slam final. He’s averaging 30.4 unforced errors per match in this tournament. For Tsonga to stand a chance against Wawrinka, he needs to dictate the tempo of the match. Wawrinka is averaging a whopping 40.8 winners per match in this tournament. Tsonga, isn’t that far behind, though, averaging 38.8 winners per contest.
In such a tight matchup, fatigue might ultimately be the deciding factor. Wawrinka has played more than three sets just once in this event, while Tsonga was pushed to four against Tomas Berdych and five against Nishikori.
Tsonga is 8-2 in his last 10 matches.
Writer’s Prediction
Tsonga (+180) advances to the final with a dramatic five-set win.
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