Nationals vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 3 Preview
Where: Dodger Stadium – Los Angeles, California
When: Monday, October 10, 2016, 4:00 PM ET
Line: Washington Nationals (+135) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-150); total 7.5 – view all MLB lines
TV Broadcast: MLB Network
Writer’s Pick: Washington Nationals (+135)
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Betting on the Washington Nationals (+135)
Gio Gonzalez did not end the regular season on a good note. The lefty had a bloated 7.43 ERA in five starts during the month of September, and got past the fifth inning just once in those five starts. Gonzalez didn’t have a great season as a whole. His 4.57 ERA was his worst since his first couple seasons in the majors.
Manager Dusty Baker will likely have a short leash for his starter in Game 3, but Gonzalez did perform well in his lone start against the Dodgers. He went six innings and gave up just one run on three hits in an 8-1 Nats win on July 20. LA hit just .213/.290/.332 against lefties this season, the worst mark in the majors.
But Baker should have a lot of confidence going to his bullpen should Gonzalez falter early. The excellent Nats bullpen, which finished second to the Dodgers in ERA, has given up zero runs and just four hits in 7.2 innings through the first two games of the series.
None of the Nats’ batters has ever faced Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda, but they did get a good sign with Daniel Murphy going 3-for-3 with 2 RBIs in Game 2. Murphy has killed righties this season, hitting .354/.396/.614. The Nats offense as a whole has had nine hits in each of the first two games in the series.
Betting on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)
Kenta Maeda had a rather anticlimactic end to an otherwise solid rookie season. The Japanese right-hander gave up eight runs on 12 hits in 6.2 innings over his last two regular season starts. Nevertheless, Maeda was one of Dodgers’ most dependable starters this season. He went 16-11 with a 3.48 ERA in 32 starts.
Maeda, who will be making his first-ever postseason start, has been pretty reliable at home, particularly in recent starts. He’s gone at least five innings while giving up three runs or fewer in his last six home starts. He went 5-0 in the five games which went to decision.
If Maeda can give the Dodgers more of the same, the bullpen can take care of the rest. The Dodger relievers, who were the best in the majors in the regular season, have been just as good as their Nats counterparts. They’ve given up just four hits on 7.2 innings thus far in the series.
However, the Dodgers will need to provide their pitching staff with some runs, and that could be hard to come by against Gio Gonzalez. Five LA batters – a list that includes Justin Turner and Adrian Gonzalez – have at least 16 at-bats against Gonzalez. Of those five, only Carlos Ruiz has hit a home run and has more than two RBIs against the lefty.
Writer’s Prediction
The Nats bats get to the rookie Maeda, while Gonzalez and the Washington pitching staff keep the Dodger bats quiet. Washington (+135) wins, 6-4.
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