The All-Star break is finally over and the second half of the season is about to start. As the teams start to slug it out for the right to advance to the playoffs, we take a deep look at the divisional races as they stand so you can cash in on the run to the postseason. Today we look at the American League East, but you can also check out our comprehensive betting breakdowns of the NL Central and NL East – both fascinating races in their own rights.
The AL East has been a topsy-turvy place in 2014, with early season favorites the Boston Red Sox bringing up the rear and 2013-disappointments the Toronto Blue Jays leading the pack for most of the season before falling off hard in June-July.
Which teams stand the best chance of playing in October? Who can conquer the traditionally tough AL East in 2014? Read on for all the odds and analysis you need to bet on this wild division.
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AL East Title Race Odds, Analysis and Prediction
Favorites – Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays
After an impressive end to their first half where they won 10 of their last 13 games to build a 53-44 record and a three-game lead over the Blue Jays and New York Yankees in the AL East, the Baltimore Orioles have been installed as +110 favorites to clinch the division.
[sc:MLB240banner ]Key to the Orioles’ surge to the top of the standings has been their offense. The Orioles are fourth in the majors when it comes to hits, collecting 867 in total in the first half, recording in the process a team batting percentage of .265 which is third-best in the American League.
Their 405 runs (9th in the majors) have somewhat cover for their pitching inadequacies, with the Orioles just 15th when it comes to team ERA with a 3.83 mark and a lowly 27th when it comes to quality starts with only 39.
Not far behind the Orioles are the Toronto Blue Jays who are priced at +225 to snatch the division. If the Orioles are rounding into form heading into the second half, the Blue Jays seem to be losing steam. The Blue Jays still had a one-game lead over the Orioles last July 2 but suffered a bad run, losing eight of their next 10 games to end the first half trailing the Orioles in the AL East by four games.
Just like the Orioles, the Blue Jays have been led by their offense. The Blue Jays are fifth in the entire majors when it comes to run production as they batted .258, good for sixth in the American League. The corner outfielders of the Blue Jays have provided the artillery for the offense with left fielder Melky Cabrera and right fielder Jose Bautista combining for 210 hits and 99 RBIs, good for 24 % of the entire team’s production.
It is the stellar play however of first baseman Edwin Encarnacion that has truly caught the eye. The 31-year-old native of the Dominican Republic has driven in 70 runs this season with 26 home runs to boot. He however suffered a leg injury July 5th against the Athletics and his absence was clearly felt by the Blue Jays towards the end of the first half as they stuttered to a 49-47 record going into the All-Star Break.
High-Value Sleeper — New York Yankees
The Yankees have been unlucky this season with their starting rotation just totally decimated with various injuries to their star players. At the start of the season, the Yankees paraded a pitching staff that included C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova and Masahiro Tanaka.
All four are currently out with the biggest blow being the elbow injury that Tanaka suffered just before the All-Star Break. Tanaka, who leads the league in wins with 12, is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, and his loss could signal the end of the Yankees’ title aspirations this year.
There is, however, one man who will be desperate to change that equation and that is their captain Derek Jeter. Jeter, who announced earlier this year that he will retire at the end of the season, will be hoping to write one final glorious chapter in his already storied career in the pros.
Jeter, who had two hits in the American League’s 5-3 win over the National League, is currently batting .272 this season with only 25 RBIs. But as history has shown with Derek Jeter, the 40-year-old shortstop lives for the big moments and is expected to lead an injury-depleted Yankees squad in the second half of the season. The Yankees are priced at +325 to win their 14th division during the Jeter era.
Key Player – Nelson Cruz (Baltimore Orioles)
The biggest surprise for the Orioles this season has been the play of their left fielder Nelson Cruz. Cruz, who signed an $8 million, one-year contract with Baltimore this past offseason, has been a revelation for the Orioles following the Biogenesis scandal that tarnished his reputation last season.
He has repaid the Orioles’ trust in him, batting .287 with 28 homers, as well as driving in 74 runs in the first half of the season, providing the impetus for the Orioles’ season so far.
Key Series — September 26-28 – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
If the AL East race comes down to the wire, then it is perfectly fitting that the last series of the year will feature two of the top teams in the division. The Orioles travel to Toronto on September 26-28 for a three-game set against a Blue Jays side desperate to end their 21-year playoff drought.
They are tied at five games apiece in terms of their head to head matchup in the season so far with the Blue Jays having a 2-1 edge when the games are played at Rogers Centre.
Writer’s Prediction
The Baltimore Orioles (+150) will just have enough in the tank to pull off the AL East win and capture their first division title since 1997. Create a betting account now and get in on a value-heavy AL East pennant race.
