The All-Star Break has come and gone and it’s time to preview the home stretch races for pennants and wild cards in Major League Baseball. We start our review of the postseason drive with a look at the NL East. For more divisional breakdowns, try our AL East and NL Central playoff race previews on for size.
With the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins nowhere near contention, the National League East has predictably become a two-horse race between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. Both teams have leaned heavily on their outstanding pitching for much of the season, but which one’s staff will lift their team to this year’s NL East crown? Read on for more on this intriguing race.
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MLB’s NL East Pennant Race Odds, Analysis, and Predictions for 2014
Favorite – Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have rebounded well from last season’s disappointing campaign, and are finally playing to their tremendous potential.
[sc:MLB240banner ]From top to bottom, the Nats have the best roster in the division. Their offense, while only middle of the pack stats-wise (14th in runs, 19th in batting average, 16th in home runs), is still markedly better than their nearest division rivals, the Atlanta Braves, especially with Bryce Harper back from injury.
But what makes Washington a big -160 favorite to win a second division crown in three years is its outstanding pitching. The Nats’ starters (3.28 ERA) and relievers (3.69 ERA) both rank third in ERA, while the Nats’ pitching staff as a whole owns the lowest team ERA in the majors.
While ace Stephen Strasburg (3.74 ERA) and Gio Gonzalez (3.70 ERA) haven’t performed to their usual high standards, the Nats haven’t suffered as much because their 3-4-5 starters – Jordan Zimmerman, Tanner Roark and Doug Fister – all have ERA’s right around 3.00.
Based on their track records, it’s not a stretch to see Strasburg and Gonzalez pitch much better in the second half. And with Harper back in the lineup, a Nationals team that is already very good could get even better.
High-Value Sleeper – Atlanta Braves
The defending division champion Braves aren’t exactly “sleepers,” but they do present the best value at +135 to win a two-horse race of a division.
Despite losing just about their entire starting rotation to injury before the start of the season, the Braves just continue to defy the odds with some excellent pitching no matter whom they throw out to the mound. They’re currently sixth in team ERA (3.34) and first in quality starts.
Sophomore starter Julio Teheran has admirably assumed the role of staff ace, ranking 6th in the NL in ERA and 9th in strikeouts. And come the 9th inning, it doesn’t get more automatic than Braves closer Craig Kimbrel.
The stumbling block for anyone looking at the Braves as potential division champs will be its god-awful offense, which is ranked just 28th in runs and 22nd in batting. Atlanta has already cut the incredibly disappointing second baseman Dan Uggla, while the equally disappointing B.J. Upton continues to straddle the Mendoza Line.
A lot is banking on the Braves’ pitching staff to continue their excellent performance in the absence of consistent run support. Unless the likes of Upton or whoever Uggla’s permanent replacement is improves dramatically, the Braves could struggle to put up enough runs to keep up with the Nats.
Key Player – Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals)
With Harper out for nearly two months due to thumb surgery, the Nats and Braves were basically neck-and-neck in the division. But with their star outfielder’s powerful bat back, Washington expect to get an added injection of offense to help them pull away from Atlanta.
However, the results since his return haven’t been too promising. In his first 123 at-bats, he’s is right at the Mendoza Line with just two home runs. The Nats are still talented enough to win the division without Harper, but having their star playing at his best will keep the pesky Braves at bay.
Key Series – September 15-17 – Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
The final series of the year between the two teams will likely be a decisive one, especially if they continue to keep within striking distance of one another. The Braves will have the slight advantage of homefield in this series, one they must capitalize on if they are to defend their division crown.
Writer’s Prediction
The Braves’ offense falters down the stretch, opening the door for the Nationals (-160) to reclaim the NL East. Create a betting account now and make your picks in for all six MLB division winners.
