USC opened its Pac-12 Championship run in style with an upset victory over fifth seed Arizona State. Could the big win give the Trojans enough momentum to top No. 4 seed UCLA in the conference quarterfinals? The Bruins may be caught shaking off some rust after a week-long break from any on-court action.
Nikola Jovanovic had a big block to deny Arizona State a go-ahead jumper, while Elijah Stewart nailed two clutch free throws with three seconds remaining as the USC Trojans upended the No. 5-seeded Sun Devils 67-64 in the second round of the Pac-12 tournament.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Stewart, who finished with a team-high 27 points, was especially hot from three-point range as he nailed 6-of-9 three-pointers. His outside shot could be the spark USC needs for a big game against the Bruins. UCLA ranks near the bottom in the nation in three-point defense, and has allowed USC to shoot 53 percent from beyond the arc across their two regular season matchups.
Stewart has made 5-of-13 threes against the Bruins, while Katin Reinhardt has gone 7-of-10 from long range. The long range shooting of Stewart and Reinhardt should draw UCLA’s defenders out of the shaded area. That should provide Jovanovic with the space to work inside. The sophomore has been dominant in the two games against UCLA this season, averaging 18 points and five rebounds.
USC 3-7 straight up in its last 10, but is an excellent 7-3 against the spread in those games.
Betting on the UCLA Bruins
The UCLA Bruins should be pretty confident heading into their Pac-12 quarterfinal game against USC. The Bruins have won five of their last seven games, including their last three in a row. They’ve also dominated USC in recent years, winning nine of the past 10 matchups since February 2011 (7-3 against the spread).
One of UCLA’s leading scorers in sophomore guard Bryce Alford has been excellent against USC this season. He topped 20 points in both games against the Trojans this season. He’s also been efficient on the other side of the court, totaling four steals across the two games. USC hasn’t been stellar in ball security, ranking near the bottom of the nation in steals allowed per game (6.6).
Among the Bruins, Alford is the one who can match USC in three-point shooting. He’s made 10-of-14 three-pointers in the two games against the Trojans this season. But if the Bruins want to attack the basket, they can rely on their big men, Tony Parker and Kevon Looney.
Parker has averaged 19 points in two games against USC this season. Looney has also been very productive, finishing both games with double-doubles to average 12.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game.
Dominating the boards will be crucial for the win. When UCLA outrebounded USC 41-20 in the first matchup on January 14, they won an 83-66 blowout. UCLA only held a one rebound edge in the second game on March 4, which resulted in a closer, although still comfortable 85-74 win.
The Bruins have lost four of their last seven games after four or more days of rest.
Writer’s Prediction
The Bruins win, but USC keeps the game close enough to cover +8.5.
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