If you thought Week 1 of the 2016 NCAA football season season was good, just get a load of Week 3. Four matchups between Top 25-ranked teams, including a couple with major conference implications, and another round of massive non-conference showcases. This week is going to be fun to watch, and will be even more fun with some winning picks. Here are 10 of our top spread picks, for 10 of the top games of Week 3.
And for more college football coverage, check out the five best games to watch in Week 3 here.
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2016 NCAA Football Week 3 Picks
Thursday, Sept. 15
#6 Houston (-8) vs. Cincinnati (+8) – 7:30 PM ET
Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. missed last weekend’s 42-0 win over Lamar with a shoulder injury. He should be ready to go for their Thursday night showdown, though, and the Cougars have enough weapons around him to put points up against the Cincy defense.
Writer’s Prediction: Houston (-8) rolls to a double-digit road win, 35-24.
Saturday, Sept. 17
#2 Florida State (-2.5) vs. #10 Louisville (+2.5) – 12:00 NN ET
Through two weeks, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson has been arguably the most impressive player in the nation. The Cardinals QB has already accounted for 13 touchdowns and has led his team to an FBS-high 66 points per game, albeit against pretty subpar competition.
This Florida State defense will be a marked step up in competition from the ones he’s faced so far, though. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if Louisville’s defense can contain Deondre Francois, Dalvin Cook and the rest of the Noles offense which already put up 45 points (including 26 unanswered) against a very good Ole Miss D.
Writer’s Prediction: Louisville puts up a fight, but FSU (-2.5) shows its class and gets the better of Cardinals, 42-38.
Oregon (+3) vs. Nebraska (-3) – 3:30 PM ET
New Oregon quarterback Dakota Prukop has played fairly well in his first two games, but he goes on the road to face a talented Nebraska defense which has caused eight turnovers in its first two games. Nebraska’s senior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. can be hit or miss at times, but he should be able to make the ball pretty comfortably against a Ducks defense which still has a few holes to fill.
Writer’s Prediction: Nebraska (-3) gets the home win 35-31.
#1 Alabama (-10) vs. #19 Ole Miss (+10) – 3:30 PM ET
As if Alabama didn’t already have enough motivation to snap its losing skid against Ole Miss, Nick Saban’s public criticism of his team in last week’s sloppy 38-10 win over Western Kentucky should warrant a positive reaction from the Tide as they visit Oxford.
Ole Miss certainly has the weapons to put points up against Alabama… if Chad Kelly has enough time to find them. But his offensive line was eventually found out in the second half by Florida State, and Bama’s outstanding edge rushers Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson can do similar damage over a full game.
Writer’s Prediction: Alabama (-10) rolls past Ole Miss on the road, 31-17.
#17 Texas A&M (+3.5) vs. Auburn (-3.5) – 7:00 PM ET
As weird as it might seem, the defenses of both Texas A&M and Auburn are those team’s strengths, and the offenses are the bigger question marks. Auburn’s offense seems to have figured a few things out in its recent 51-14 win over Arkansas State. But the Aggies have the better quarterback with Trevor Knight, who’s a threat with his arm and his legs, and better skill position weapons, who should be able to help the Aggies stay within a field goal of Auburn.
Writer’s Prediction: Texas A&M (+3.5) keeps it close and manages to cover on the road.
#12 Michigan State (+7.5) vs. #18 Notre Dame (-7.5) – 7:30 PM ET
DeShone Kizer is now entrenched as Notre Dame’s No. 1 quarterback, and rightly so. The junior has started the season in sizzling form. He has a 7:1 TD-to-INT ration, and his 195.9 passer rating is fifth in the nation. The Spartans don’t quite have that type of offensive firepower; they put up just 28 points to FCS school Furman in Week 1.
But the Spartans still have a very good defense and a capable running game, a recipe which has served them well on the road. They covered both games as road underdogs of seven or more points against Ohio State and Michigan last season.
Writer’s Prediction: The Spartans (+7.5) don’t quite have the firepower to get the win, but they do enough to cover on the road in a 24-17 defeat.
#16 Georgia (-7) vs. Missouri (+7) – 7:30 PM ET
Georgia just barely avoided disaster against FCS opponent Nicholls and could only manage a 26-24 win at home. Such offensive inconsistencies are to be expected for the Bulldogs, who are starting a true freshman, Jacob Eason, at quarterback. Nick Chubb, just recently returned from injury, was also coming off a heavy-workload outing against UNC.
Eason will be playing his first ever road game, and he’ll face a pretty formidable Mizzou defense. But the Tigers offense is still a mess at this point, and Chubb can provide all the offense the Bulldogs need.
Writer’s Prediction: Georgia (-7) pounds the ball early and often en route to a 24-14 win.
#3 Ohio State (-2.5) vs. #14 Oklahoma (+2.5) – 7:30 PM ET
Ohio State’s offense is playing at a much higher level than it was for most of last season. With J.T. Barrett now orchestrating the offense full-time, the Buckeyes are averaging 62.5 points through two weeks, second in the nation behind Louisville. The reloaded defense has also played very well, giving up just 13 total points in two games.
Oklahoma obviously has the offensive weapons to give the Buckeyes all they can handle, but questionable playcalling – as seen in the Sooners’ Houston loss where Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine inexplicably had just 12 carries – is a big reason to be wary of the Sooners.
Writer’s Prediction: Ohio State (-2.5) outclasses Oklahoma in Norman, 35-31.
USC (+9) vs. #7 Stanford (-9) – 8:00 PM ET
USC has a big weakness – its run defense – which Alabama exposed time and again in Week 1. That doesn’t bode well for the Trojans as they pay a visit to the home of +300 Heisman favorite Christian McCaffrey.
The last time McCaffrey met USC, which was in last year’s Pac-12 title game, he put on quite a show with 312 yards from scrimmage – including 207 on the ground – with two touchdowns. The Cardinal still have the personnel to win the battle of the trenches, and the Trojans will have a tough time coping once again.
Writer’s Prediction: Stanford (-9) stomps all over the USC front en route to a 38-28 home win.
#11 Texas (-8) vs. California (+8) – 10:30 PM ET
Last year’s Texas-Cal matchup was a pulsating shoot-out which resulted in the Bears winning 45-44 on a missed PAT. Expect a few more points to be scored in this upcoming matchup, but probably a different result.
Texas is much-improved with freshman quarterback Shane Buechele, and the defense has also taken a step up. And even if Buechele struggles a bit in his first road game, the Longhorns can still run the ball a bunch on a Bears run defense that’s still a sieve.
Writer’s Prediction: Texas comes out on top in another high-scoring affair but Cal (+8) covers, 42-35.
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