With a shocking upset to Kansas State in the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 tournament and a 5-5 record to close out the regular season, the Baylor Bears aren’t necessarily heading into the NCAA Tournament in great form. Back-to-back first-round losses at the Big Dance from the past couple of seasons aren’t doing the team any favors, either.
However, you can still put a positive spin on Baylor’s rather lengthy break from play. The team will have had six full days to prepare for its showdown against New Mexico State this Friday, with head coach Scott Drew likely to have reconfigured his team’s plan of attack.
One thing’s for certain, though: Baylor’s best player, Johnathan Motley, will pose as a serious threat for the Aggies this week. Motley’s averaging close to a double-double this season (17.3 points, 9.9 rebounds), and there appears to be no player on NM State’s side that can contain the first-team All-Big 12 selection.
In addition, having junior guard Manu Lecomte slowly getting back to shape from an ankle injury in mid-January is also comforting news for the Bears. After missing two games, the Belgian import finished with 13 points on 5-of-7 shooting in 24 minutes of action against Kansas State. Lecomte, mind you, is the only other Baylor player outside of Motley to average in double-digit scoring this season (12.4 PPG).
Then again, the Bears don’t need to light up the scoreboard to win games. They’re actually ranked 16th in the nation by limiting opponents to just 62.7 points per game, having employed their stifling defense mostly against a formidable Big 12 group this season.
On a betting-related side note, Baylor is also a solid 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games held on neutral sites, which further reinforces the notion that the team can bounce back from its recent March Madness shortcomings in tremendous fashion against wild card New Mexico State this Friday.
The New Mexico State Aggies enter the Big Dance with a sweet five-game winning streak that was capped off with a superb victory in the Western Athletic Conference title game.
Not only did the Aggies convincingly beat Cal State Bakersfield by 10 points in the finals, they’ve even ransacked through the entire conference tournament with their own brand of sound defense by limiting each of their three rivals to 60 points or less. As a matter of fact, they’re ranked fourth in the entire country this season by holding opponents to a mere 29.1-percent shooting clip from three-point range.
New Mexico State will rely heavily on the WAC’s Player of the Year, Ian Baker, to help the team overcome a daunting matchup versus the Bears. The senior guard averaged 16.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game this season, but will still need plenty of help from the likes of sophomore forward Eli Chuha against Baylor’s imposing big men.
Chuha, who posted his team-best 15th double-double of the season with 16 points and 11 boards in the WAC title game, was instrumental to NM State’s success on the glass all campaign long. In turn, the Aggies finished with close to 40 rebounds per game this season; good enough for 17th in the nation in that category.
However, many people still consider New Mexico State’s numbers to have been inflated by way of its weak competition from the conference. The team only faced one school from a Power Five conference this season (a win over Arizona State), and Baylor will clearly be its toughest opponent to date.
And even though the Bears haven’t had the best results at the Big Dance lately, the Aggies are just as if not worse come the grandest stage of them all, having lost nine-straight March Madness games dating back to the 1993 season.
Writer’s Prediction
Baylor advances to the next round, but New Mexico State puts up a good fight and covers +12.5 with a final score of 69-62.
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