No. 5 Virginia vs No. 12 UNC Wilmington Preview
Where: Amway Center – Orlando, Florida
When: Thursday, March 16, 2017, 12:40 PM ET
Line: Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5) vs. UNC Wilmington (+7.5); total: 134.5 – view all NCAA Basketball lines
TV Broadcast: truTV
Writer’s Prediction: UNC Wilmington (+7.5)
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Betting on the Virginia Cavaliers (-7.5)
To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Tony Bennett-coached Virginia defense is still one of the best in the country. The Hoos enter the tournament as the No. 1-ranked defense per KenPom.com. But after losing Malcolm Brodgon and Anthony Gill, as well as highly-touted transfer Austin Nichols after being dismissed from the team, this team just can’t score points to save its life.
The Hoos averaged just 66 points per game this season. That inability to score was a big reason why they lost 10 games this year, their most losses in the last three seasons. And even when they had a terrific scorer in Brogdon, offense has also been the team’s Achilles heel in the tourney, where they haven’t advanced beyond the Elite Eight in the previous three years.
Senior London Perrantes is a very good point guard, but he has been unable to shoulder the massive offensive load for the Hoos. He’s the only player averaging double-figures on the season.
The Hoos will have their chances to score against a subpar UNC-Wilmington defense that’s just 189th in efficiency, but with the Seahawks’ ability to score, the Virginia offense will have to play unusually well to cover the spread.
Betting on the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (+7.5)
If you still don’t have an upset alert set on UNC Wilmington against Virginia in the first round, change that immediately.
The Seahawks are a very dangerous team. They have a terrific offense, one which averaged 85 points per game (10th in the country) and ranked 18th in efficiency. They also have experience. Five of their top six scorers were part of the tournament team that gave Duke quite a scare in the first round last year. And now, they face another ACC team in Virginia that is by all accounts one of the more vulnerable high-profile teams in the first round.
UNCW does a bunch of things very well – taking care of the ball (2nd in the country in turnover rate), creating turnovers (55th in opp. Turnover rate), and offensive rebounding (60th in ORB rate). They are also one of the leaders in taking and making 3s, which are always handy in the tournament.
Those are all very good skills to have when facing Virginia. The Hoos play a very slow pace, and if the Seahawks can get a few more extra possessions, they can more chances of scoring, which is something the Virginia offense doesn’t do very well.
Unlike in the NFL, this Seahawks defense is not very good, in part because of their lack of size. But Virginia doesn’t have a big man capable of exploiting that weakness consistently.
With all those factors going in their favor, UNCW should at the very least keep things close against the Cavaliers if they don’t win outright.
Writer’s Prediction
UNCW does it. The No. 12 seed Seahawks (+7.5) stun No. 5 Virginia in the first round.
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