Who said video replay is only good for contesting a last second shot in basketball? At the 2019 Kentucky Derby, controversy ruled at Churchill Downs when Maximum Security was stripped off a win after video review showed that he interfered the path of some horses, thus giving the win to long shot Country House. And now, Country House will not run in the Preakness because of an illness (a cough, apparently) which ends any chance of a Triple Crown this year.
The 2019 Preakness Stakes is shaping up to be any horse’s game, and controversy may follow. One thing is for certain, it will be one of the most interesting betting spectacles in quite some time now that the field is wide open. As expected, racebook odds shifted like crazy after news broke that Country House and Maximum Security would be skipping the event, with Improbable, once considered a sleeper, now being the +300 favorite at the sportsbook. Read ahead for more.
Improbable disappointed at the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Considered as among the favorites to win at Churchill Downs, especially following the withdrawal of Omaha Beach from the race Improbable finished just fourth. It was the first and only time thus far in which the Bob Baffert-trained horse failed to make it to the podium. Prior to the Kentucky Derby, Improbable won each of his first three races before finished second at the Rebel Stakes (Grade 2 stakes) and at the Arkansas Derby (Grade 1 stakes). Despite the letdown performance at the Kentucky Derby, Improbable is still seen as a serious contender to win at Pimlico, especially if most other Derby favorites won’t participate.
With Code of Honor and Country House out of the list of contenders for the 2019 Preakness, War of Will could be the horse to benefit the most from the event losing those two horses.War of Will isn’t exactly the horse with a blazing track record, especially of late. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 in any of his past two races. He finished just ninth at the Louisiana Derby (Grade 2 stakes) last March, then placed seventh at the controversial Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs earlier this month. War of Will, however, gained plenty of steam and turned a lot of heads when he stitched together three straight wins from November to February. That stretch includes his victories at the Lecomte (Grade 3 stakes) and that Risen Star (Grade 2 stakes). Some also say that War of Will would have won the 2019 Kentucky Derby had Maximum Security did not interfere with the path of the Mark Casse-trained colt.
Bourbon War is well rested. That’s one of the things you could say about this relatively lightly-raced horse from the Bourbon Lane Stable. Bourbon War did not race at the 2019 Kentucky Derby and has only raced five times in his career. He last saw action at the Florida Derby (Grade 1 stakes) late last March in which he did not show. He finished behind Maximum Security, Bodexpress, and Code of Honor for fourth place. Prior to that race, Bourbon War finished second at the Fountain of Youth (Grade 2 stakes). The horse will be helmed by jockey Irad Ortiz, who is the winningest jockey this season with earnings of $10.94 million. He has a 23 percent winning percentage.
We’ve listed him under the “sleepers” category, but let us make this one clear: DO NOT SLEEP ON Alwaysmining. This horse has a ridiculous streak going on, having won all of his last six races. Many will point to its lack experience — or total absence of which — racing at graded stakes, but it’s not like he’s beaten a bunch of patsies in all of his past races. In his most recent race, Alwaysmining blew away the competition, winning the Federico Tesio by a huge 11 ½ lengths to earn a spot at the 2019 Preakness.
Laughing Fox didn’t race at the Kentucky Derby, but earned a spot at the 2019 Preakness Stakes by winning the Oaklawn Invitational on May 4. Before that, Laughing Fox finished fourth at the Arkansas Derby (Grade 1 stakes) and seventh at the Rebel Stakes (Grade 2). His other win was at a maiden special weights race at Oaklawn Park last January.
Writer’s Prediction
Improbable bounces back from a bad performance at the Kentucky Derby and takes home the win at Pimlico.
