With reigning champions Barcelona knocked out, Bayern Munich have now been installed as the new favorites to claim the 2016 UEFA Champions League. But the Bavarians, who are priced at +145 to lift the cup, are hardly an automatic choice to even make the final. They must first find a way past Barca’s conquerors, Atletico Madrid, and their ironclad defense. Can the Germans get a good result in the first leg to take back home?
Read on below for our comprehensive preview of the Atletico-Bayern semifinal first leg. Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out our preview of the other semifinal, Manchester City vs. Real Madrid.
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Atletico Madrid vs. Bayern Munich 1st Leg Preview
Where: Estadio Vicente Calderon, Madrid, Spain
When: Wednesday, April 27, 2:45 PM ET
Line: Atletico Madrid +174 vs. Bayern Munich +143, tie +200; total 2.0 – view all UEFA Champions League lines
TV Broadcast: FS1
Betting on Atletico Madrid
Atletico’s defensive performance over two legs against Barcelona was a tactical masterclass. Remember, they were down to 10 men for over a half in the first leg, and could’ve contained Barca’s vaunted attack even more impressively if they were at full strength.
Manager Diego Simeone is a genius in terms of setting his team up to defend for long stretches. Alteti conceded 77 percent of possession to Barca in the second leg, but they’re so good at denying space in the middle of the field that even Barca’s historic front three could only get four shots inside the penalty area.
Simeone will face a somewhat similar foe in Bayern, one that will dominate possession for majority of the tie. But even if Atleti are without veteran center-back Diego Godin due to a hamstring injury, Simeone’s track record suggests his team can weather any storm the German giants thrown at them at the Vicente Calderon.
In seven Champions League knockout stage home games under Simeone, Atleti have allowed just one goal, and have kept six-consecutive clean sheets. Their defense remains incredibly impregnable at home this season. They’ve conceded just seven in 17 league games at home, and just two in five in the Champions League.
Don’t sleep on Atleti’s attack, either. Antoine Griezmann was the hero with two goals against Barca, pushing his total to six in this year’s competition. Meanwhile, Fernando Torres – back after his second leg suspension – has been on fire with five goals in his last six games.
Betting on Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich have been less than impressive through the first two rounds of the Champions League knockout phase. The German champions needed a remarkable comeback plus extra-time to dispatch Juventus in the Round of 16, and could only win 3-2 on aggregate against Benfica, one of the weakest teams to make the quarterfinals.
Since qualifying for the semis, though, Bayern have gone on to win their next three games by a combined score of 7-0. Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller, the team’s leading Champions League scorers with eight goals apiece, each scored two goals during that stretch, while midfielder Arturo Vidal also added two of his own.
Despite being the away team, Bayern will likely be on the front foot for most of the first leg against Atletico. Bayern are pretty used to playing against teams that will sit back very deep against them, so they won’t be caught off-guard with Atletico’s approach.
Bayern have the width needed to stretch out Atleti’s defense, with wingers like Douglas Costa, Franck Ribery, and Kingsley Coman all capable of getting in behind the defense and delivering quality crosses into the box.
Bayern also have a great target man in Lewandowski, who can get on the end of crosses and should benefit from the absence of Godin at the heart of Atletico’s defense. Meanwhile, Muller is an opportunistic ghost who can find spaces in even the tightest defenses.
Bayern, though, are winless in their last seven away games in the Champions League knockout stages (four draws, three losses). And extending to his time with Barcelona, Bayern manager Pep Guardiola has just one win, six draws and four losses in his last 11 away games in the knockout stage.
Writer’s Prediction
The two teams play the first leg cautiously and eventually cancel each other out in a 0-0 draw (+200).
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