Another trip to the Champions League final is well within Atletico Madrid’s grasp. The losing 2014 finalists have a slim lead to protect after coming away from their home leg with a 1-0 win over Bayern Munich. However, they must still hold on for 90 minutes (or more) in the second leg against the fired up German champions in the fortress that is Allianz Arena.
Get a full breakdown of the Bayern-Atleti second leg with our preview below. And for more Champions League action, check out our preview of Real Madrid vs. Manchester City.
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Bayern Munich vs. Atletico Madrid 2nd Leg Preview
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
When: Tuesday, May 3, 2:45 PM ET
Line: Bayern Munich -178 vs. Atletico Madrid +430, tie +255; total 2.5 – view all UEFA Champions League lines
TV Broadcast: FS1
Betting on Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich are on the brink of elimination once again. After losing 1-0 in the first leg in Madrid, Bayern must now win the second leg by two clear goals in order to go through to the final in normal time. Bayern are priced at +105 to advance to the final. A draw will see them eliminated on aggregate, while a 1-0 win will force extra-time.
Bayern are still in a manageable spot against Atletico. They’re only down one goal, and they’ll be at home, where they haven’t failed to score in the Champions League in two years. Bayern have also won their last 11 Champions League home games, scoring 41 goals and conceding only six.
They should be able to put a lot of pressure on Atletico by continuing to dominate possession and create their share of scoring chances. They enjoyed an incredible 74 percent of possession and launched 20 shots (seven on target) in the first leg in Madrid.
Manager Pep Guardiola’s surprising move to not start Thomas Muller in the first leg didn’t work out as expected. Despite dominating the middle of the field with an extra midfielder, the team missed Muller’s uncanny ability to find spaces in the Atletico defense. Look for Pep to learn from that miscalculation and start Muller in the second leg.
Bayern must be careful not to get caught out on the counter-attack and give up an away goal. The possible return of central defender Jerome Boateng should greatly help solidify a Bayern defense that has looked shaky without him.
Betting on Atletico Madrid
Atletico have Bayern right where they want them. Thanks to Saul Niguez’s incredible solo-effort, the Spaniards now have a precious 1-0 lead to protect in Germany. A draw of any score, or even a one-goal defeat with Atletico scoring at least one away goal would be enough to see them through to the Champions League final. With those scenarios in their favor, Atletico are -135 favorites to move on.
Thanks to that lead, Atleti can now execute their patented gameplan of sitting back and forming a wall in front of their goal. As they’ve shown countless times in manager Diego Simeone’s regime, they are expertly drilled in soaking up vast amounts of pressure for long periods, home or away.
Atletico have kept clean sheets in seven of their last nine Champions League matches, two of them coming against arguably the two best clubs in all of Europe (Barcelona and Bayern).
Their already robust defense, which has kept six clean sheets in a row in all competitions, could get even better with Diego Godin fit enough to travel to Germany and possibly set to return to the lineup. The star center-back has missed the last three games, including the first leg, due to a hamstring injury.
But as Simeone said, they won’t just be defending and playing exclusively for the draw. They’re a terrific counter-attacking side, and can be deadly if Bayern commit too many men forward. Hotshot striker Antoine Griezmann, the team’s leading scorer with 21 goals, scored again over the weekend to snap a four-match goalless drought.
Writer’s Prediction
Bayern (-178) with the battle with a 2-1 win, but Atletico win the war and move on to the final because of the away goals rule.
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