Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines Preview
Where: Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, Michigan
When: Saturday, October 1, 3:30 PM ET
Line: Wisconsin Badgers (+10.5) vs. Michigan Wolverines (-10.5); total 44.5 – view all NCAA Football odds and lines
TV Broadcast: ABC
Writer’s Pick: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)
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Betting on the Wisconsin Badgers (+10.5)
Only one team in the nation has already played and won against two top 10-ranked teams this season, and that team’s Wisconsin. The Badgers (4-0, 3-1 ATS) upset then-No. 5 LSU in Week 1 as a 12.5-point underdog, and shocked the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans, 30-6, last week in East Lansing.
The Wisconsin defense has been nothing short of outstanding. It’s currently seventh in the nation in scoring defense (11.8 points per game), 10th in rushing defense, 12th in total defense, and 14th in turnovers forced.
The passing game remains subpar even with Alex Hornibrook taking over as the starting quarterback for Bart Houston, but the rushing attack is doing enough to get by. Senior running back Corey Clement was limited by an ankle injury, but still rushed for 54 tough yards and two touchdowns against a very good Michigan State front.
Basically, the same factors which saw Wisconsin take down the Spartans still applies to Michigan. The terrific Badgers defense will need to take the Wolverines’ running game out of the equation, force Wilton Speight to pass, and hope to win the turnover battle with that great defense and conservative play-calling on offense.
Their defense has shown that it’s certainly capable of accomplishing the first two. However, it will be a much tougher ask for the Badgers’ limited offense to put points on the board against a Michigan defense with few weaknesses. That will be especially true if they don’t force four turnovers and score a defensive touchdown like they did against Sparty.
Betting on the Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)
Michigan (4-0) hasn’t quite faced the level of competition that Wisconsin already has through four games, but the Wolverines have won convincingly against the teams they have faced. They are averaging 52 points per game (fourth in the nation), with an average margin of victory of 38 points. Michigan is 3-1 ATS on the season, and missed a 4-0 start by just half a point.
They responded well to their only piece of adversity so far against Colorado, as they recovered from a 14-point deficit to win 45-28. Meanwhile, they kicked off Big Ten play with a comprehensive 49-10 beatdown of Penn State, easily covering an 18-point spread. The total has gone over in all of Michigan’s last 12 games.
Michigan had no problems moving the ball on a very flimsy Penn State front, racking up 326 rushing yards with six touchdowns. They’ll face a lot more resistance from the Badgers front, but that unit could be a bit beat up from a tough matchup against the Spartans’ bruising line. The same goes with the Badgers’ O-line, which will face a Michigan front seven that gave up just 2.5 yards per carry against Penn State.
Wisconsin’s offense is just not very good, and it’ll struggle sustaining drives if it can’t run the ball on this Michigan defense. Short drives mean more time on the field for the defense, which could eventually see that unit fade late in the game.
Writer’s Prediction
Michigan (-10.5) just has too much talent on both sides of the ball. The Wolverines get the big 27-14 win at the Big House.
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