Last year, it was California Chrome. This year, it’s American Pharoah who enters the Kentucky Derby as the popular pick to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. Pharoah has had some signficant buzz surrounding him in the buildup to the big race, but can he live up to that hype or will another steed steal Pharoah’s thunder?
To answer that all-important question, we’ve consulted some of the sport’s foremost experts and below you’ll find their predictions for the 141st staging of the Kentucky Derby on May 2.
Take your sweet time checking out our comprehensive coverage of the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports,” with our complete Kentucky Derby picks as well as the experts’ Kentucky Derby sleeper picks.
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2015 Kentucky Derby Experts Picks and Predictions
KentuckyDerby.com
EXPERT
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
John Asher
Carpe Diem
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Jill Byrne
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
Ed DeRosa
American Pharoah
Frosted
Bolo
James Scully
Dortmund
Frosted
Mubtaahij
[sc:horses240banner ]The four horse racing experts polled in the Kentucky Derby’s official website look sold on the fact that one of American Pharoah, Dortmund or Carpe Diem – the top three favorites for the Run for the Roses – will go on to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. John Asher and Jill Byrne even had all three finishing in their top three in some order.
But both Ed DeRosa and James Scully fancy Frosted, a +1,800 sleeper, to sneak his way into second place. Frosted has won just two of his seven career races, but a change in jockey – he’s now being ridden by 2013 Derby-winning jockey Joey Rosario – and a minor throat procedure to help his breathing for the 1 ¼ mile race may have improved his chances at Churchill Downs.
DeRosa is also high on +3,300 longshot Bolo to break into the top three. Bolo kept pace with Dortmund for a respectable third-place finish at the San Felipe Stakes, but there are still lingering concerns about whether he can perform as well on the dirt as he does on grass.
Bleacher Report
EXPERT
WINNER
Michael Dempsey
American Pharoah
Adam Wells
Dortmund
Two of Bleacher Report’s featured columnists gave their early picks for the Derby, and they have gone with the two favorites. Michael Dempsey is siding with the +250 favorite American Pharoah, citing his dominant run up to the Derby and his trainer Bob Baffert as two big elements in Pharoah’s favor.
Meanwhile, Wells is edging toward Dortmund, Baffert’s other horse in the field. Dortmund has won all six races he’s entered. The last two horses to accomplish such a feat heading into Churchill Downs – Seattle Slew in 1977 and Smarty Jones in 2004 – both went on to win the Derby. Wells also fancies Dortmund’s lineage – he’s the son of 2008 Derby champ Big Brown – to see him through the competition.
The Roar
EXPERT
FIRST
SECOND
THIRD
John Gregg
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
The Roar’s John Gregg, a very experienced, Emmy-award-winning sports journalist, has also gone with the big three of American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem as his top three finishers. Despite all the things that can go wrong in the race, Gregg still fancies either any of the three favorites to emerge victorious.
However, he did offer a couple of alternative picks in Frosted (as discussed earlier) and a real longshot in Stanford (+5,000). A Todd Pletcher-trained horse, Stanford has some question marks regarding his ability to handle the distance at Churchill Downs, but he has apparently looked impressive in his preparation for the race.
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