The No. 8 Arizona Wildcats got conference play started on the right foot by handily taking care of in-state rivals Arizona State in their Pac-12 opener. With a big piece of their lineup now back from injury, the two-time defending regular season conference champs will look to make it back-to-back wins against the UCLA Bruins, who have started their Pac-12 season with back-to-back losses in the state of Washington.
Get a complete breakdown of this big-time Pac-12 matchup. And for more Thursday night college hoops action, this time from the Big Ten, check out our previews of Illinois vs. Michigan State and Michigan vs. Purdue.
Betting on the Arizona Wildcats (13-1, 1-0 Pac-12)
The Arizona Wildcats are back to full strength, and just in time for the start of conference play. Senior center Kaleb Tarczewski had eight points and five rebounds in 15 minutes as he returned from a broken foot in the Wildcats’ 94-82 road win over Arizona State. Meanwhile, guards Gabe York and Allonzo Trier led the way with 22 and 20 points, respectively.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Arizona didn’t really miss Tarc that much when he was gone. After losing their first game without their star seven-footer against Providence, the Wildcats won their next seven non-conference games (and went 6-1 ATS), including one against a No. 13-ranked Gonzaga.
However, having Tarc back against UCLA should be a nice boost for the Wildcats, since he’ll give them another big body to throw at the Bruins’ bruising frontcourt of Thomas Welsh and Tony Parker. Tarc’s presence in the middle should improve an Arizona team that is one of the best in the country at crashing the boards, outrebounding teams by 12.4 rebounds per game this season.
Arizona’s been much better on defense this season – the Wildcats are currently No. 14 adjusted defensive efficiency – but its No. 28-ranked offense is getting better by the game. The Wildcats are averaging 87.7 points per game in their last six, and should be able to exploit some holes in a Bruins defense that is way down in 128th in defensive efficiency.
The shine from UCLA’s wins over a No. 1 Kentucky and No. 20 Gonzaga at the start of December is fading quickly. The Bruins have lost three of their last five games since those wins, including back-to-back road losses at Washington and Washington State.
The Bruins haven’t gone 0-3 to start conference play since the 1981-82 season, though, and despite their current losing skid, they should be somewhat confident in getting their first win against the Wildcats on home turf. UCLA is 9-2 (8-3 ATS) at home against Arizona since 2006 and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.
UCLA has had its share of problems defensively, but the Bruins should at least be able to hold their own on the glass against the Wildcats. The Bruins are No. 11 in the nation in rebounding, averaging 42.9 per game.
They also have more than enough attacking firepower to give the Arizona defense problems. All five UCLA starters scored in double-digits in their home win over Kentucky. Their stars can also come up with big individual performances. Junior and leading scorer Bryce Alford (16.9 PPG) recently dropped 30 points against Washington, while backcourt running mate Isaac Hamilton (16.1 PPG) went for 27 against Wazzu.
Writer’s Prediction
UCLA gets it act together and deals Arizona another conference loss at Pauley Pavilion. The Bruins (+3) win straight up, 87-83.
