The Cactus Bowl seems to love the underdog. Not only is the ‘dog 4-1 against the spread over the last five, they’ve won three of those games outright. So the UCLA Bruins don’t mind that Kansas State is favored coming into this year’s Cactus Bowl on Tuesday, December 26 at Chase Field in Phoenix Arizona. Will the trend continue? Register to bet and wager with your pick.
Betting Preview for the Kansas State Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins Cactus Bowl Game on Dec 26 2017
A midseason stretch where the Wildcats lost 3 of 4 had their hopes of going to a bowl game hanging on by a thread. But, the Wildcats turned it around winning 4 of their final 5 games to secure a spot in a bowl game. The play of freshman quarterback Skylar Thompson is a big reason for the resurgence. Thompson came on in relief twice in wins over Kansas and Texas Tech. He then took the reigns as the starter for the final 3 games and accounted for 6 total touchdowns in those 3 starts.
Thompson has provided the Wildcats with efficient quarterback play and the ability to run the football. He has completed 63.2% of his passes on the season and has also rushed for 263 yards along with 3 rushing touchdowns. Thompson led the Wildcats to a road win over Oklahoma State that showed off how special a player he really is. He threw for 204 passing yards and 3 touchdowns while also rushing for 93 yards a touchdown. He outdueled Mason Rudolph on his own turf.
Bill Snyder has plenty of experience coaching in bowl games but he hasn’t always been successful. Snyder has coached in 19 bowl games but has just an 8-11 record.
He is 2-7 SU in his last 9 bowl appearances. It is difficult to gauge what the Wildcats’ motivation will be. They don’t have a lot of seniors but their leading tackler and captain is a senior. They are on a bit of a roll but several weeks off from their last game might halt that momentum a little bit.
Betting on the vs UCLA Bruins +2.5 (6-6)
After firing coach Jim Mora on his birthday, the Bruins turned to Chip Kelly to try to improve their program. While Kelly is giving the program plenty of reason for optimism in the future, the Bruins still have a bowl game to play this season. This game very likely could be quarterback Josh Rosen’s last game in an UCLA uniform. There’s interesting speculation that Rosen could return for a year with Kelly to see what type of success they could have together but Rosen appears to be a lock to go in the top 10 so it’s likely he will declare for the draft after the bowl game.
The Bruins had a pretty up and down season where they struggled to protect their quarterback at times while also having a difficult time stopping the run.
The Bruins defense allowed 5.7 yards per rush on the season which ranked 126th in the FBS. Their pass offense was the strength of the team – even when Rosen was banged up or not even playing. They averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt on the season and were 33rd in the FBS in 3rd down conversion rate.
The Bruins also did turn the ball over the 32nd most times in the FBS so they do shoot themselves in the foot – even when the offense may be working effectively. The big thing to look at in bowl games is motivation. The Bruins should be relatively motivated. A new coach in the building means no one’s spot in the lineup is safe.
Writer’s Prediction
The UCLA defense struggled for much of the year so even a little bit of extra motivation isn’t going to flip the switch for them. I expect them to struggle to contain Kansas State’s rushing attack while Rosen impresses in his last college game. Unless Rosen decides not to play, I think we will see a shootout. When healthy, he has been able to pick defenses apart. Thompson should be able to counter with some big plays for the Kansas State offense. Pick: UCLA Bruins (+2.5)
