So far, so good for Jose Mourinho at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have claimed maximum points from their first three games, and have displayed the rock-solid defense that’s been synonymous with Mourinho sides. They currently own the best defensive record in the league with just one goal conceded thus far.
If past Mourinho-Pep Guardiola encounters are any indication, United will likely be willing to concede much of the possession, even at home, in order to maintain a compact defensive shape.
There don’t seem to be too many question marks defensively and in midfield, with Marouane Fellaini and Paul Pogba likely to continue forming a physically imposing double pivot. Ander Herrera could be the most likely player to come into the team to offer more running and energy in place of Juan Mata.
The more pressing questions for United will be in attack. They don’t have a lot of speed aside from Anthony Martial, and likely won’t be able to threaten City on the counterattack.
However, Zlatan Ibrahimovic (three goals in three games) has shown that he still has the ability to produce moments of magic. United also has superior size over City, which could lead to some scoring opportunities via set pieces.
Meanwhile, Marcus Rashford could be Mourinho’s ace in the hole. The prodigious 18-year-old scored United’s late winner against Hull in their last league game, and recently recorded a hat-trick on duty with the England Under-21 team. And of course, he also got the winner in United’s 1-0 win last year over City at the Etihad.
Pep Guardiola has implemented his style of play pretty seamlessly in Manchester. City are currently top of the goalscoring charts with nine goals in three Premier League matches so far, which have led to three wins.
Star striker Sergio Aguero has been a big contributor to that early success, with six goals in just four appearances. However, he will miss the Manchester derby after he was handed a three-match ban for violent conduct.
But it speaks to City’s strength in depth that they should have enough options to make up for Aguero’s loss. Guardiola could opt to play with a “false-nine” like he often did with Lionel Messi, and attempt to cause confusion around United’s compact defense. Raheem Sterling, who has been sensational to start the season, can fill that role, as can Nolito.
Of course, Guardiola can also opt to start Sterling on the wing and let his tremendous speed to wreak havoc on United’s full-backs.
Speed is something United don’t have, and Guardiola’s side will likely use that to their advantage. City can just play a high defensive line and dare United to get behind them (which they probably can’t). That will allow City to slowly suffocate the United defense through constant pressure before eventually breaking them down.
Guardiola’s excellent tactical ability has gotten the better of Mourinho in their past encounters. His sides are 7-6-3 in their 16 career head-to-heads.
Writer’s Prediction
These two teams are still not the finished product, and neither will get the better of the other in this early-season derby. The first Manchester derby of the year ends in a 1-1 draw (+210).
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