History has shown time and time again that no one – not even a No. 1 seed – is safe from an early exit in March Madness. Wichita State went undefeated in the regular season last year, but got bounced by Kentucky in the Round of 32. And this year, no matter how good the No. 1-ranked Wildcats may look, there’s still a chance it all comes crashing down.
But if we’re being realistic, Kentucky is way down the list of top seeds that would likely get upset in an early round. In fact, there are five top-three seeds that – for one reason or another – stand a very possible chance of failing to make it past the tournament’s first weekend.
Let’s take a closer look at those five teams and see just why people better think twice before penciling them in to go deep in their brackets.
For more March Madness coverage, don’t forget to check out our complete NCAA tournament picks and our March Madness sleeper picks.
[sc:MarchMadness ]Top 5 Upset Candidates in the 2014-2015 NCAA Tournament
5. Virginia (No. 2 seed in East)
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]While Virginia’s defense is no doubt elite, its offense is not nearly at that level. It’s still good, even when the Hoos were without second-leading scorer Justin Anderson, but it can have its moments of looking downright bad. Anderson’s return is a major boost, but he’s still finding his feet after a long injury layoff. He went scoreless in limited minutes during the ACC tournament.
Virginia needs Anderson back close to 100 percent to make a deep run. If he isn’t close, the Hoos could be in trouble, especially since they’re in line to meet Michigan State – the team that knocked the Cavs out of last year’s Sweet 16 – in the Round of 32.
Writer’s Prediction: Virginia makes it to the Elite Eight, but could so easily get bounced in the Round of 32.
4. Duke (No. 1 seed in the South)
Duke is no stranger to epic upsets, especially in the last few years. The Blue Devils went down to No. 14 Lehigh in 2012, and went one seed worse last season when they fell to No. 15 Mercer. On both occasions, Duke had some pretty awful defenses, which led to its downfall.
While Duke’s defense isn’t quite as decrepit this year, at least statistically speaking, (their defensive rating was 161st and 141st compared to 91st this year) it’s still very susceptible to getting scored upon. If the offense has one of those days when the games aren’t quite falling as easily, the Blue Devils could be facing another disastrous result in the earlier rounds.
Writer’s Prediction: No. 1 Duke doesn’t get past the Elite Eight.
3. Notre Dame (No. 3 seed in the Midwest)
When the shots are falling, Notre Dame is very, very good (see its wins over Duke and North Carolina in the ACC tourney). But the Irish’s three-ball-dependent style can be unpredictable from game to game and, because of their lack of an inside presence, they can go on some horrific slumps when the long-range shots dry up (see their one-point-in-10-minutes stretch against Miami).
A run like that in the tournament would be potentially catastrophic for Notre Dame, since its defense, while somewhat improved, still can’t be 100 percent trusted. The Irish’s lack of depth could also play a major factor, especially with the games in the tournament coming thick and fast.
Writer’s Prediction: Notre Dame is a high-seeded casualty in the Round of 32.
2. Gonzaga (No. 2 seed in the South)
At this point, it’s a case of “We’ll believe it when we see it” with regard to Gonzaga and a deep tournament run. Too many brackets have been busted because of misplaced trust in the Zags over the years. They’ve reached the Sweet 16 just three times in 14 years under head coach Mark Few and have been bounced in the Round of 32 or earlier in each of the last five years.
The Zags will no doubt be well aware of the history they’ll have to go up against, which could add more unnecessary pressure. Their bracket won’t be a cakewalk either, with Iowa or Davidson a tough out in the Round of 32, and a possible date with the “Comeback Kids” of Iowa State in the Sweet 16.
Writer’s Prediction: Gonzaga fails to get past Iowa State in the Sweet 16.
1. Kansas (No. 2 seed in the Midwest)
The Jayhawks are definitely talented, but they are still young and inconsistent. They needed overtime to beat a West Virginia team that was without its best player and couldn’t hold a 14-point halftime lead against Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament final. There’s the old cliché that a young team “doesn’t know how to win,” but it’s looking pretty applicable to Kansas.
Kansas also won’t be helped by top player and veteran leader (Perry Ellis) limited with a sprained knee, and arguably its second-best big man (Cliff Alexander) unavailable to play due to the ongoing NCAA investigation regarding his eligibility.
And the cherry on top of the reasons Kansas could be gone early: the young and shorthanded Jayhawks could face the savvy and dependable veterans of Wichita State in the Round of 32. Yikes.
Writer’s Prediction: Kansas gets shocked in the Round of 32 by the Shockers.
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